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Here's How Dollar Tree (DLTR) is Placed Ahead of Q4 Earnings
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Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR - Free Report) is likely to register increases in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Mar 1, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $7.61 billion, indicating an improvement of 7.5% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
The bottom line of the operator of discount variety retail stores is also expected to have increased year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.03 per share, suggesting growth of 1% from the year-ago period’s reported figure. The consensus mark has moved up by a penny in the past seven days.
For fiscal 2022 earnings, the consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $7.20, suggesting growth of 24.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark has moved up by a penny in the past seven days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fiscal 2022 revenues is pegged at $28.2 billion, suggesting 7.2% growth from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
We expect the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter total revenues to increase 6.9% year over year to $7,568.4 million and adjusted earnings to decline 0.6% to $1.99 per share. For fiscal 2022, we estimate revenue growth of 7.1% to $28,179.4 million and earnings per share growth of 23.6% to $7.16.
The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the Chesapeake, VA-based company outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.6%.
Dollar Tree’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 performance is likely to have gained from robust product demand, efforts to evolve assortments to drive the consumables category at Dollar Tree and initiatives to improve the value proposition at Family Dollar. Dollar Tree’s Key Real Estate Initiatives, including expansions of H2, Dollar Tree Plus! and Combo Stores, have been on track.
The company’s restructuring and expansion initiatives, including store openings and improvement of distribution centers, are likely to have boosted revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. Dollar Tree has been on track to leverage Family Dollar and Dollar Tree distribution center systems, and combined merchandise.
The company’s digital and omni-channel capabilities, and same-day delivery service with Instacart are also expected to have driven traffic trends in the fiscal fourth quarter. The aforementioned factors instill optimism regarding the upcoming results.
On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, the company was optimistic about its fiscal 2022 top-line performance despite concerns regarding margins and the bottom line. The company’s efforts to evolve the assortment to drive consumables’ performance at Dollar Tree and the initiatives to improve the value proposition at Family Dollar have been on track, which are likely to have aided the top line.
Management predicts consolidated net sales of $28.14-$28.28 billion for fiscal 2022, with enterprise same-store sales growth in the mid-single digits.
For fourth-quarter fiscal 2022, Dollar Tree expects consolidated net sales of $7.54-$7.68 billion, with enterprise same-store sales growth of mid to high-single digits. This will comprise a mid to high-single-digit increase in the Dollar Tree segment and low to mid-single-digit growth in the Family Dollar segment.
However, the company’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 bottom-line results are expected to reflect continued headwinds from inflationary pressures and an unfavorable product mix due to the demand shift toward low-margin consumable goods. These headwinds are expected to have offset growth in the gross margin in the to-be-reported quarter.
On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, management anticipated witnessing continued gross margin pressure across both segments from the inflationary cost situation through the rest of fiscal 2022. Dollar Tree expects consumables to outperform discretionary, negatively impacting the gross margin. For fiscal 2022, management envisions earnings in the lower half of the previously mentioned $7.10-$7.40 per share.
Additionally, Dollar Tree has been witnessing higher SG&A expenses for the past several quarters, owing to elevated payroll, increased repairs and maintenance expenses, and store facility costs. These are also expected to have weighed on the fiscal fourth-quarter margin performance.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Dollar Tree this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Dollar Tree has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +6.31%.
Stocks With Favorable Combination
Here are some companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:
Burlington Stores (BURL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.08% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is likely to register growth in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers. The consensus mark for BURL’s quarterly earnings has moved up by a penny in the past seven days at $2.72 per share. The consensus estimate suggests 7.5% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Burlington Stores’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.6 billion, which suggests a decline of 0.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
Ross Stores (ROST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.16% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is likely to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The consensus mark for ROST’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.13 billion, which suggests growth of 2.2% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ross Stores’ earnings has been unchanged at $1.23 per share in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate indicates 18.3% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Target (TGT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.88% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register declines in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2022 results. The consensus mark for TGT’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $30.7 billion, which suggests a 1% decline from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The consensus mark for TGT’s quarterly earnings has moved down by a penny in the past seven days to $1.38 per share. The consensus estimate suggests a decline of 56.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
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Here's How Dollar Tree (DLTR) is Placed Ahead of Q4 Earnings
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR - Free Report) is likely to register increases in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Mar 1, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $7.61 billion, indicating an improvement of 7.5% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
The bottom line of the operator of discount variety retail stores is also expected to have increased year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.03 per share, suggesting growth of 1% from the year-ago period’s reported figure. The consensus mark has moved up by a penny in the past seven days.
For fiscal 2022 earnings, the consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $7.20, suggesting growth of 24.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark has moved up by a penny in the past seven days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fiscal 2022 revenues is pegged at $28.2 billion, suggesting 7.2% growth from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.
We expect the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter total revenues to increase 6.9% year over year to $7,568.4 million and adjusted earnings to decline 0.6% to $1.99 per share. For fiscal 2022, we estimate revenue growth of 7.1% to $28,179.4 million and earnings per share growth of 23.6% to $7.16.
The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the Chesapeake, VA-based company outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.6%.
Dollar Tree, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Dollar Tree, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Dollar Tree, Inc. Quote
Factors to Consider
Dollar Tree’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 performance is likely to have gained from robust product demand, efforts to evolve assortments to drive the consumables category at Dollar Tree and initiatives to improve the value proposition at Family Dollar. Dollar Tree’s Key Real Estate Initiatives, including expansions of H2, Dollar Tree Plus! and Combo Stores, have been on track.
The company’s restructuring and expansion initiatives, including store openings and improvement of distribution centers, are likely to have boosted revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. Dollar Tree has been on track to leverage Family Dollar and Dollar Tree distribution center systems, and combined merchandise.
The company’s digital and omni-channel capabilities, and same-day delivery service with Instacart are also expected to have driven traffic trends in the fiscal fourth quarter. The aforementioned factors instill optimism regarding the upcoming results.
On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, the company was optimistic about its fiscal 2022 top-line performance despite concerns regarding margins and the bottom line.
The company’s efforts to evolve the assortment to drive consumables’ performance at Dollar Tree and the initiatives to improve the value proposition at Family Dollar have been on track, which are likely to have aided the top line.
Management predicts consolidated net sales of $28.14-$28.28 billion for fiscal 2022, with enterprise same-store sales growth in the mid-single digits.
For fourth-quarter fiscal 2022, Dollar Tree expects consolidated net sales of $7.54-$7.68 billion, with enterprise same-store sales growth of mid to high-single digits. This will comprise a mid to high-single-digit increase in the Dollar Tree segment and low to mid-single-digit growth in the Family Dollar segment.
However, the company’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 bottom-line results are expected to reflect continued headwinds from inflationary pressures and an unfavorable product mix due to the demand shift toward low-margin consumable goods. These headwinds are expected to have offset growth in the gross margin in the to-be-reported quarter.
On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, management anticipated witnessing continued gross margin pressure across both segments from the inflationary cost situation through the rest of fiscal 2022. Dollar Tree expects consumables to outperform discretionary, negatively impacting the gross margin. For fiscal 2022, management envisions earnings in the lower half of the previously mentioned $7.10-$7.40 per share.
Additionally, Dollar Tree has been witnessing higher SG&A expenses for the past several quarters, owing to elevated payroll, increased repairs and maintenance expenses, and store facility costs. These are also expected to have weighed on the fiscal fourth-quarter margin performance.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Dollar Tree this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Dollar Tree has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +6.31%.
Stocks With Favorable Combination
Here are some companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:
Burlington Stores (BURL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.08% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is likely to register growth in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers. The consensus mark for BURL’s quarterly earnings has moved up by a penny in the past seven days at $2.72 per share. The consensus estimate suggests 7.5% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Burlington Stores’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.6 billion, which suggests a decline of 0.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
Ross Stores (ROST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.16% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is likely to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The consensus mark for ROST’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $5.13 billion, which suggests growth of 2.2% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ross Stores’ earnings has been unchanged at $1.23 per share in the past 30 days. The consensus estimate indicates 18.3% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Target (TGT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.88% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register declines in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2022 results. The consensus mark for TGT’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $30.7 billion, which suggests a 1% decline from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The consensus mark for TGT’s quarterly earnings has moved down by a penny in the past seven days to $1.38 per share. The consensus estimate suggests a decline of 56.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.