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Casey's (CASY) Lined Up for Q3 Earnings: Factors at Play

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Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY - Free Report) is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2023 numbers on Mar 7 after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3,371 million, indicating an improvement of 10.6% from the prior-year reported figure.

The bottom line of this operator of convenience stores is expected to have declined year over year. Although the Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share has risen by a penny to $1.67 over the past 30 days, it suggests a decline from the earnings of $1.71 reported in the year-ago period.

This Ankeny, Iowa-based company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7.2%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 12.2%.

Key Factors to Note

Casey's price and product optimization strategies, the increased penetration of private brands and digital engagements comprising mobile app and online ordering capabilities are commendable. The curbside pickup option and Casey’s reward program have been benefiting the overall performance.

Moreover, Casey's has partnered with DoorDash and Uber Eats for delivery services. Also, the company’s self-distribution model and acquisition activities bode well. These factors are likely to have favorably impacted the company’s to-be-reported quarter’s top line.

In its recent business update — announced on Jan 31 — the company highlighted that same-store inside sales for the quarter under discussion were in the lower half of the annual range of a 5-7% increase. Same-store fuel gallons were near the low end of the annual range of flat to a 2% increase.

Casey’s Grocery & General Merchandise category might have contributed to the company’s top line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales for the category is pegged at $781 million, which suggests an increase of 6.6% from the prior-year reported figure. The consensus mark indicates a jump of 3.6% in same-store sales.

Also, the company’s Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage category may have positively impacted total revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales for the category stands at $320 million, which indicates a jump of 9.3% from the prior-year reported figure. Also, the consensus mark suggests growth of 6.1% in same-store sales.

With respect to the total gallons sold during the quarter under discussion, the Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests an increase of 4.9%. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales in the Fuel category indicates a jump of 21.9% to $2,379 million.

Despite the aforementioned tailwinds, concerns related to higher operating expenses cannot be ignored. Casey's witnessed an increase of 7.7% in operating expenses in the last reported quarter. The metric increased due to operating more stores compared with the same period last year and a rise in same-store credit card fees. For the quarter under review, management anticipated total operating expense growth to be near the low end of the annual range of a 9-10% increase.

What Does the Zacks Model Unveil?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Casey's this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Casey's has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +8.25%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

3 More Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three other companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Ulta Beauty (ULTA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +8.53% and a Zacks Rank of #2. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share of $5.53 suggests an increase of 2.2% from the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Ulta Beauty’s top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.01 billion, which suggests a rise of 10.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. ULTA delivered an earnings beat of 26.2%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Arhaus (ARHS - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.69% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 20 cents suggests an increase of 42.9% from the year-ago quarter.

Arhaus’ top line is anticipated to have risen year over year. The consensus mark for Arhaus’ revenues is pegged at $354.3 million, indicating an increase of 48.7% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. Arhaus has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 112% on average.

Five Below (FIVE - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.52% and a Zacks Rank of #3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $3.06 suggests an increase of 22.9% from the year-ago quarter.

Five Below’s top line is expected to have increased marginally year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.11 billion, which suggests a rise of 10.9% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. In the trailing four quarters, FIVE delivered an earnings beat of 26.3%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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