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BJ's Wholesale (BJ) Queued for Q4 Earnings: Factors to Note

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BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ - Free Report) is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Mar 9, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $4,809 million, indicating growth of 10.4% from the prior-year reported figure.

The bottom line of this operator of membership warehouse clubs is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share has been stable at 88 cents over the past 30 days and suggests an increase of 10% from the year-ago period.

We expect total revenues to be up 9.6% year over year to $4,776 million and the bottom line to increase 5.5% to 84 cents a share.

BJ's Wholesale has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.2%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Westborough-based company’s bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 19.3%.

Factors to Consider

BJ's Wholesale’s focus on simplifying assortments, boosting marketing and merchandising capabilities, expanding into high-demand categories and building an own-brand portfolio is commendable. The company remains committed to enhancing omnichannel capabilities and providing value for customers. These endeavors have been contributing to growth in membership signups and renewals.

The company has been directing resources toward expanding digital capabilities to better engage with members and provide them with a convenient way to shop. Also, the company’s acquisition of the perishable supply chain from Burris Logistics puts it in an advantageous position to expand fresh food offerings.

BJ's Wholesale’s better pricing, private-label offerings, merchandise initiatives and digital solutions are likely to have favorably impacted the to-be-reported quarter’s top line. We expect total comparable club sales to increase 7.3%. Excluding gasoline sales, we expect comparable club sales to improve 4.3%.

However, margins remain an area to watch. Higher freight costs, investments in inflationary categories and markdowns in general merchandise inventory might have hurt merchandise margins. We estimate a year-over-year gross margin contraction of 70 basis points during the quarter under discussion.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for BJ's Wholesale Club this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

BJ's Wholesale Club has a Zacks Rank #2 but an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Ulta Beauty (ULTA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +8.53% and a Zacks Rank of #2. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share of $5.53 suggests an increase of 2.2% from the year-ago quarter.

Ulta Beauty’s top line is expected to rise year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.01 billion, which suggests a rise of 10.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. ULTA delivered an earnings beat of 26.2%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Arhaus (ARHS - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.69% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 20 cents suggests an increase of 42.9% from the year-ago quarter.

Arhaus’ top line is anticipated to have risen year over year. The consensus mark for Arhaus’ revenues is pegged at $354.3 million, indicating an increase of 48.7% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. Arhaus has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 112% on average.

Five Below (FIVE - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.52% and a Zacks Rank of #3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $3.06 suggests an increase of 22.9% from the year-ago quarter.

Five Below’s top line is expected to have increased marginally year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.11 billion, which suggests a rise of 10.9% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. In the trailing four quarters, FIVE delivered an earnings beat of 26.3%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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