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Oneok (OKE) Down 9.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Oneok Inc. (OKE - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 9.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Oneok due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

ONEOK Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Miss

ONEOK Inc. reported first-quarter 2023 operating earnings per share (EPS) of $2.34, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.07 by 13.04%. The bottom line also improved 169% from the year-ago quarter’s figure of 87 cents.

The year-over-year improvement was due to higher natural gas liquid and natural gas volumes, higher average fee and natural gas storage rates.

Total Revenues

Operating revenues for the quarter were $4,521 million, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5,127 million by 11.8%. The top line also declined 16.9% from $5,445 million in the prior-year quarter.

Highlights of the Release

Adjusted EBITDA came in at $1,717 million, up 98.7% year over year.

Operating income totaled $1,497 million, up 126% from the prior-year quarter’s $662 million.

ONEOK incurred interest expenses of $166 million, down 3.5% from $172 million recorded in the year-ago period.

Financial Highlights

As of Mar 31, 2023, the company had cash and cash equivalents worth $680 million compared with $220 million as of Dec 31, 2022.

Long-term debt (excluding current maturities) was $12,728 million as of Mar 31, 2023, compared with $12,696 million as of Dec 31, 2022.

Cash provided by operating activities for the three months ended Mar 31, 2023 was $1,221 million compared with $463 million in the corresponding period of 2022.

2023 Guidance

ONEOK reaffirmed its EPS guidance in the range of $5.03-$5.69. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $4.96.

The company anticipates net income and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $2,260-$2,560 million and $4,425-$4,725 million, respectively.

ONEOK anticipates adjusted EBITDA for Natural Gas Liquids, Gathering and Processing, and Pipelines segments to be in the range of $2,795-$2,985 million, $1,180-$1,260 million, and $450-$480 million, respectively.

Processed volume for the Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment is expected in the range of 2,040-2,340 million cubic feet per day.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Oneok has a great Growth Score of A, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions has been net zero. Notably, Oneok has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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