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Will Extra Space Storage (EXR) Surprise in Q1 Earnings?

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Extra Space Storage Inc. (EXR - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter 2016 results on May 2, after the closing bell.

This self-storage real estate investment trust (“REIT”) came up with in-line results in the prior quarter. Over the trailing four quarters, the company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three out of four quarters, with a positive average surprise of 2.05%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter funds from operations (“FFO”) per share is currently pegged at 84 cents.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider This Quarter

Headquartered in Salt Lake City, UT, Extra Space Storage is a notable name in the self storage industry. The company offers a vast array of well-located storage units to its customers including boat storage, recreational vehicle storage and business storage. In first-quarter 2016, the company is expected to benefit from steady demand in the self storage industry. Same-store revenues are expected to benefit from growth in rates.

However, occupancy levels are unlikely to post any robust growth. Also, the decent benefit from discount reductions that the company enjoyed in earlier quarters is not expected to repeat itself. Moreover, intense competition, new supply and economic weakness are anticipated to have kept the growth momentum range bound in the to-be-reported quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Extra Space Storage will beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at 84 cents. Hence, the Earnings ESP, which represents a difference between them, is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: Extra Space Storage has a Zacks Rank #2. While a favorable rank increases the predictive power of ESP, a 0.00% Earnings ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks in the REIT sector you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.63% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will report first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 29.

Taubman Centers, Inc. (TCO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.53% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will release results on May 2.

Vornado Realty Trust (VNO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.81% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will report first-quarter 2016 results on May 2.

Note: FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs, is obtained after adding depreciation and amortization and other non-cash expenses to net income.

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