Annaly Capital Management ( NLY Quick Quote NLY - Free Report) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.
Shares of this real estate investment trust have returned -7.6% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -2.9% change. The Zacks REIT and Equity Trust industry, to which Annaly belongs, has lost 2.7% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?
While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.
Revisions to Earnings Estimates
Rather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.
Our analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.
Annaly is expected to post earnings of $0.72 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -32.1%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.
The consensus earnings estimate of $2.94 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of -30.3%. This estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.
For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.91 indicates a change of -0.9% from what Annaly is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.
With an impressive
externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for Annaly.
The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:
12 Month EPS Revenue Growth Forecast
Even though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.
In the case of Annaly, the consensus sales estimate of $330 million for the current quarter points to a year-over-year change of +18.7%. The $641 million and $1.3 billion estimates for the current and next fiscal years indicate changes of -56.4% and +103%, respectively.
Last Reported Results and Surprise History
Annaly reported revenues of $-31.96 million in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -106.7%. EPS of $0.72 for the same period compares with $1.20 a year ago.
Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $262 million, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -112.2%. The EPS surprise was +4.35%.
The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company could not beat consensus revenue estimates in any of the last four quarters.
No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.
While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.
The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an An is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.
Annaly is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers.
Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade. Conclusion
The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Annaly. However, its Zacks Rank #4 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.