ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2016 results on Aug 4 after the market closes. In the last reported quarter, ACADIA had posted a negative earnings surprise of -12.5%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this quarter.
Factors to Consider
ACADIA’s second quarter revenues will include Nuplazid sales. The company launched Nuplazid (treatment of hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson’s disease psychosis) in May 2016 in the U.S. Investors will remain focused on the sales ramp up of this product as well as the company’s progress in educating healthcare providers on Nuplazid, ensuring patient access to the treatment and securing reimbursement. ACADIA has 132 neuroscience sales specialists promoting the product.
Another area of interest is the company’s life cycle management plans for Nuplazid. ACADIA is exploring the potential to develop the drug for other neurological and psychiatric disorders with large unmet need.
Nuplazid is currently in a phase II proof-of-concept study for Alzheimer's disease (AD) psychosis with top line data expected in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, ACADIA plans to initiate a phase II study on Nuplazid for AD agitation in the second half of the year. Another area of potential label expansion is schizophrenia.
ACADIA’s earnings track record is disappointing with the company missing expectations in three of the last four quarters and surpassing in one quarter with an average negative surprise of 15.41%.
Our proven model does not conclusively show that ACADIA is likely to beat earnings estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to announce an earnings surprise. That is not the case here as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for ACADIA is 0.00% since the Most Accurate estimate stands at a loss of 48 cents per share, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Zacks Rank: ACADIA carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). ACADIA’s Zacks Rank #4 when combined with an ESP of 0.00% makes surprise prediction difficult.
We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
The Earnings ESP for Raptor Pharmaceuticals Corp. is +11.11% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company will be reporting second-quarter results on Aug 4.
Bio-Techne Corp. (TECH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. It is expected to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2016 results on Aug 4.
The Earnings ESP for Acceleron Pharma, Inc. (XLRN - Free Report) is +7.41% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company will release second-quarter results on Aug 4.
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