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MongoDB (MDB) Stock Plunges 36.2% in 6 Months: Hold or Fold?

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MongoDB (MDB - Free Report) , a popular database software company, has seen its stock price plummet 36.2% over the past six months, underperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s rise of 29.7%, leaving investors to consider whether to hold onto their shares or cut their losses. The significant downturn has sparked debates among market analysts and shareholders alike as they attempt to decipher the underlying causes and potential future trajectory of the company's stock.

The sharp decline in MongoDB's stock price can be attributed to a combination of factors, including broader market volatility and concerns about the company's growth prospects in an increasingly competitive landscape.

Although the slump presents a potential entry point for investors who believe in the company's long-term prospects, the combination of strong financial performance, market leadership in NoSQL databases and favorable industry trends make a compelling case for considering MongoDB stock at its current levels.

6-Months Performance

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The Atlas Effect: MongoDB's Cloud Platform Shines Bright

MongoDB's cloud-based Atlas platform has become the cornerstone of the company's growth strategy, showcasing resilience in challenging economic conditions. In the first quarter of fiscal 2024, Atlas cloud database service revenues surged 32% year over year, contributing 70% to MongoDB's total revenues. This impressive growth highlights the increasing shift toward cloud-based database solutions and Atlas's dominance in MongoDB's portfolio.

Atlas is gaining traction among enterprise clients, as evidenced by its partnership with Bendigo and Adelaide Bank for core banking technology modernization.

Product innovation remains key to Atlas's success. The introduction of MongoDB Atlas Vector Search, which simplifies the integration of generative AI and semantic search capabilities, addresses the growing demand for AI-powered database solutions. This feature is expected to drive customer satisfaction, engagement and retention rates.

Strategic partnerships with hyperscale cloud providers have been instrumental in driving Atlas's growth. MongoDB has expanded Atlas' global reach to 117 cloud regions across major providers, including Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) -owned Google Cloud, Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) -owned Amazon Web Services and Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) Azure. This broad availability caters to diverse customer requirements for data residency, availability and low latency.

Furthermore, MongoDB's position as a leader in the NoSQL database market remains strong. As businesses continue their digital transformation journeys, the need for flexible, scalable database solutions is only expected to grow. MongoDB's developer-friendly approach and its ability to handle diverse data types make it well-suited to meet these evolving needs, potentially driving long-term growth.

MongoDB's AI-Driven Approach Accelerates Growth in Customer Base

MongoDB's customer expansion strategy is paying off, with over 49,200 clients as of Apr 30, 2024. The company's success in acquiring and retaining customers, particularly large enterprises, is evident in its high net revenue retention rates. This trend indicates that customers not only stick with MongoDB but also increase their usage over time, providing a stable foundation for growth.

The company's multi-cloud approach offers customers flexibility in choosing public cloud providers, ensuring a consistent experience across platforms. This strategy aligns with the broader shift toward cloud computing and data-driven decision-making, creating a favorable long-term outlook for MongoDB.

In a significant move to capitalize on the AI boom, MongoDB has launched the MongoDB AI Applications Program (MAAP). This initiative provides customers with resources to quickly build AI-powered applications, including reference architectures and pre-built partner integrations. Accenture's participation as the first global systems integrator in MAAP, establishing a center of excellence for MongoDB projects, further underscores the program's potential impact on MongoDB's growth trajectory in the AI-driven market.


As investors grapple with the decision to hold or fold, it's crucial to consider both the short-term headwinds and long-term potential of MongoDB. The recent stock performance reflects the overall market correction in the technology sector. Investors have become more cautious about high-growth tech stocks amid high interest rates and economic uncertainties, leading to a sector-wide selloff.

MongoDB, with its premium valuation, has not been immune to this trend. MongoDB is trading at a premium with a forward 12-month P/S of 9.05X compared with the Zacks Internet - Software industry’s 2.71X, reflecting a stretched valuation.

MDB’s P/S F12M Ratio Depicts Stretched Valuation

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We believe that increasing competition in the database market from both established players and startups raises questions about MongoDB's premium valuation amid potential margin pressure.

MongoDB has experienced persistent net losses since its establishment. It incurred net losses of $176.6 million, $345.4 million and $306.9 million for the fiscal years ended Jan 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022, respectively. As of Apr 30, 2024, MongoDB's accumulated deficit reached $1.79 billion. It anticipates a substantial rise in operating expenses as it intensifies its sales and marketing initiatives, continues to invest in research and development, and extends its operations and infrastructure both domestically and internationally.

For fiscal 2025, MongoDB expects revenues between $1.88 billion and $1.9 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is currently pegged at $1.89 billion, indicating growth of 12.6% year over year.

Non-GAAP net income per share is estimated between $2.15 and $2.30. For fiscal 2025, the consensus mark for income per share has remained steady at $2.26 in the past 30 days, indicating a decline of 32.1% year over year.

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While the recent stock performance has been disappointing, the company's innovative technology and strong market position suggest that it may be premature to abandon the ship entirely. MongoDB currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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