We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. This includes personalizing content and advertising. To learn more, click here. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Service.
You are being directed to ZacksTrade, a division of LBMZ Securities and licensed broker-dealer. ZacksTrade and Zacks.com are separate companies. The web link between the two companies is not a solicitation or offer to invest in a particular security or type of security. ZacksTrade does not endorse or adopt any particular investment strategy, any analyst opinion/rating/report or any approach to evaluating individual securities.
If you wish to go to ZacksTrade, click OK. If you do not, click Cancel.
I think globally to start each week. Do You? Follow me on Twitter @johnblank100
Secure the main decks on your trading ship to start this global week ahead. We are likely to see machine-traded, algorithmic momentum programs issuing sell orders. Fear was the initial driver. Selling is carrying over mechanically from last Friday.
As the global week ahead unfolds, an excellent metaphor for the current state of share markets hails from early sailors. They consistently faced off with sudden turbulence on high seas and unseen menaces.
These early explorers got into what was called the crow’s nest to gain a better, more long-term perspective of what lay over the horizon. The further ahead the lookout could see, the more time the captain and crew below had to position their precious ship.
In the early 19th century, the crow’s nest was simply a barrel or basket lashed to the tallest mast. Wiki says Arctic Explorer William Scoresby invented the barrel crow's nest in 1807.
According to a different popular naval legend, the term goes back much further. It derives from the practice of Viking sailors.
They carried crows or ravens in a cage secured to the top of the mast. In cases of poor visibility, a crow was released. The navigator plotted a course corresponding to the bird's flight path, because the crow invariably headed towards the nearest land.
After climbing into the crow’s nest, strategists looked ahead for this stock market’s menaces. Unfortunately, I share with traders a confused insight. When share markets get sleepy and trade sideways -- like they did in July and August -- well-placed advisors in the equity strategist crow’s nest take up one of 2 broad perspectives.
The safe idea is trading rooms were on a collective summer vacation. Volume was down seasonally. Dormant bulls will rise again into the fall.
The more menacing idea — this was an eerie calm before more intense bearish events arrive on the calendar.
I agree: that’s not much help. Only one good insight takes root. When market confusion reigns from the view of the crow’s nest, the safest thing below is to secure the decks.
On Monday, three U.S. Fed speakers tee off in various parts of the country. That many Fed voices speaking at one time has stoked up building fears -- the FOMC consensus after the coming Sept. 20 & 21 meeting will be hawkish.
The Fed may soon hit richly valued major USA stock indices with a 25 basis point rate hike. Then, this curiously played Presidential election picks up in its intensity. If you have stock profits on the table, why not get them off the table before that?
Conclusion #1: Sell stocks for profit now?
LPL Financial Equity Strategist Ryan Detrick tweeted us these grim facts. The last 2 times the S&P 500 index was down -2% on a Friday, the following Monday was down -3.9% (August 21, 2015) and -1.8% (June 24, 2016).
Conclusion #2: Buy the dip mid-week?
As for the end of this global week ahead, the Bank of England monetary policy committee meets on Thursday. Mario Draghi speaks in Italy. There is going to be a public discussion of Brexit at the EU parliament, led by its leaders. That may seem a distant shore when stocks sell off hard to start a week.
Yet, keep your eyes on those external events too.
Top Zacks #1 Rank stocks to look into--
(1) Broadcom (AVGO - Free Report) is a $64 billion market cap diverse semiconductor company. The stock gets a Zacks #1 Rank and a Zacks VGM score of B. Shares price in richly at $160 a share, after a recent sell-off. The PEG ratio is 1.10.
(2) Applied Materials (AMAT - Free Report) is another semiconductor/wafer fabrication stock to look into. This $31 billion market cap stock has is a Zacks #1 Rank stock with a Zacks VGM score of B. Shares price more cheaply at $28 each. The PEG ratio is 1.05.
(3) Look into Ultrapar PA ADRs (UGP - Free Report) for oil production and pipeline exposure, and petrochemical and chemical production. This $12 billion market cap stock has a Zacks #1 Rank and a Zacks VGM score of B.
Ultrapar is a major Brazilian industrial group. It is one of the largest distributors of liquefied petroleum gas in Brazil and a leading producer of petrochemicals and chemicals.
Key global/macro events this week--
3 Fed speakers on Monday is scaring financial markets at the start of the week. The fear is this signals a hike at the Sept. 20/21 meeting.
There is a EU meeting on Brexit on Friday and the Bank of England issues a monetary policy announcement on Thursday, the day before.
We get fresh US retail sales data on Thursday, along with US industrial production, and US capacity utilization rates.
Russia’s central bank may cut its policy rate to 10% from 10.5% on Friday.
On Monday, ANTAD Same-store sales in Mexico are forecast to be up +3% y/y.
Japan’s key machinery orders came in better than expected, at 5% y/y versus a consensus for 3.7% y/y.
Sweden’s unemployment rate looks to be 4.1%.
The IMF’s Lagarde speaks in Toronto and OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.
The Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Atlanta, Kashkari speaks in St. Paul, and Brainard speaks in Chicago.
On Tuesday, the ECB’s Mario Draghi speaks in Trento, Italy.
Retail sales in Mainland China should be up +10.2% y/y, once again, with industrial production up +6.3% y/y.
The HICP inflation rate in Germany looks to be +0.3% y/y, which is too low still.
The CPI in Sweden looks to be +1.2% y/y, also low.
Italy has an industrial production number out. It looks to be around -1% y/y, like the prior one.
The important German ZEW indices come out. Current conditions should go to 58 from 57.6, economic sentiment to 9 from 4.6, and business sentiment to 3 from 0.5. Those all look better.
Brazil’s retail sales should continue weak at -5.8% y/y, from -5.3% y/y prior.
On Wednesday, The City of Buenos Aires CPI should arrive in around the 47.2% y/y prior rate.
The EU’s Juncker speaks at the EU parliament.
Average earnings in the UK (including bonus) looks to be around the prior +2.4% y/y growth rate.
The UK unemployment rate is 4.9%, similar to the USA.
On Thursday, the unemployment rate in Australia should be 5.8%.
The SNB (central bank) in Switzerland announces its monetary policy.
UK ex-auto & fuel retail sales data comes out. Look for a +4.8% y/y rate from the prior +5.4%.
Greece’s unemployment rate is 23.4%.
The BoE monetary policy committee meets and issues a rate decision.
US initial claims look low again at 265K. US capacity utilization will print. The prior number was 75.6%. US retail sales data will print too. The forecast is for a +0.3% m/m increase. That’s a +3.6% annual rate.
On Friday, the EU leaders speak about Brexit.
A monthly economic report is released in Japan.
Russia issues its latest monetary policy rate. The idea is that there is a cut to 10% from 10.5% there.
U of Michigan consumer sentiment looks to be confirmed at 91.5, up from a prior 89.8.
Unique Zacks Analysis of Your Chosen Ticker
Pick one free report - opportunity may be withdrawn at any time
Image: Bigstock
Confusion from the Crow's Nest: Global Week Ahead
I think globally to start each week. Do You? Follow me on Twitter @johnblank100
Secure the main decks on your trading ship to start this global week ahead. We are likely to see machine-traded, algorithmic momentum programs issuing sell orders. Fear was the initial driver. Selling is carrying over mechanically from last Friday.
As the global week ahead unfolds, an excellent metaphor for the current state of share markets hails from early sailors. They consistently faced off with sudden turbulence on high seas and unseen menaces.
These early explorers got into what was called the crow’s nest to gain a better, more long-term perspective of what lay over the horizon. The further ahead the lookout could see, the more time the captain and crew below had to position their precious ship.
In the early 19th century, the crow’s nest was simply a barrel or basket lashed to the tallest mast. Wiki says Arctic Explorer William Scoresby invented the barrel crow's nest in 1807.
According to a different popular naval legend, the term goes back much further. It derives from the practice of Viking sailors.
They carried crows or ravens in a cage secured to the top of the mast. In cases of poor visibility, a crow was released. The navigator plotted a course corresponding to the bird's flight path, because the crow invariably headed towards the nearest land.
After climbing into the crow’s nest, strategists looked ahead for this stock market’s menaces. Unfortunately, I share with traders a confused insight. When share markets get sleepy and trade sideways -- like they did in July and August -- well-placed advisors in the equity strategist crow’s nest take up one of 2 broad perspectives.
The safe idea is trading rooms were on a collective summer vacation. Volume was down seasonally. Dormant bulls will rise again into the fall.
The more menacing idea — this was an eerie calm before more intense bearish events arrive on the calendar.
I agree: that’s not much help. Only one good insight takes root. When market confusion reigns from the view of the crow’s nest, the safest thing below is to secure the decks.
On Monday, three U.S. Fed speakers tee off in various parts of the country. That many Fed voices speaking at one time has stoked up building fears -- the FOMC consensus after the coming Sept. 20 & 21 meeting will be hawkish.
The Fed may soon hit richly valued major USA stock indices with a 25 basis point rate hike. Then, this curiously played Presidential election picks up in its intensity. If you have stock profits on the table, why not get them off the table before that?
Conclusion #1: Sell stocks for profit now?
LPL Financial Equity Strategist Ryan Detrick tweeted us these grim facts. The last 2 times the S&P 500 index was down -2% on a Friday, the following Monday was down -3.9% (August 21, 2015) and -1.8% (June 24, 2016).
Conclusion #2: Buy the dip mid-week?
As for the end of this global week ahead, the Bank of England monetary policy committee meets on Thursday. Mario Draghi speaks in Italy. There is going to be a public discussion of Brexit at the EU parliament, led by its leaders.
That may seem a distant shore when stocks sell off hard to start a week.
Yet, keep your eyes on those external events too.
Top Zacks #1 Rank stocks to look into--
(1) Broadcom (AVGO - Free Report) is a $64 billion market cap diverse semiconductor company. The stock gets a Zacks #1 Rank and a Zacks VGM score of B. Shares price in richly at $160 a share, after a recent sell-off. The PEG ratio is 1.10.
(2) Applied Materials (AMAT - Free Report) is another semiconductor/wafer fabrication stock to look into. This $31 billion market cap stock has is a Zacks #1 Rank stock with a Zacks VGM score of B. Shares price more cheaply at $28 each. The PEG ratio is 1.05.
(3) Look into Ultrapar PA ADRs (UGP - Free Report) for oil production and pipeline exposure, and petrochemical and chemical production. This $12 billion market cap stock has a Zacks #1 Rank and a Zacks VGM score of B.
Ultrapar is a major Brazilian industrial group. It is one of the largest distributors of liquefied petroleum gas in Brazil and a leading producer of petrochemicals and chemicals.
Key global/macro events this week--
3 Fed speakers on Monday is scaring financial markets at the start of the week. The fear is this signals a hike at the Sept. 20/21 meeting.
There is a EU meeting on Brexit on Friday and the Bank of England issues a monetary policy announcement on Thursday, the day before.
We get fresh US retail sales data on Thursday, along with US industrial production, and US capacity utilization rates.
Russia’s central bank may cut its policy rate to 10% from 10.5% on Friday.
On Monday, ANTAD Same-store sales in Mexico are forecast to be up +3% y/y.
Japan’s key machinery orders came in better than expected, at 5% y/y versus a consensus for 3.7% y/y.
Sweden’s unemployment rate looks to be 4.1%.
The IMF’s Lagarde speaks in Toronto and OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.
The Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Atlanta, Kashkari speaks in St. Paul, and Brainard speaks in Chicago.
On Tuesday, the ECB’s Mario Draghi speaks in Trento, Italy.
Retail sales in Mainland China should be up +10.2% y/y, once again, with industrial production up +6.3% y/y.
The HICP inflation rate in Germany looks to be +0.3% y/y, which is too low still.
The CPI in Sweden looks to be +1.2% y/y, also low.
Italy has an industrial production number out. It looks to be around -1% y/y, like the prior one.
The important German ZEW indices come out. Current conditions should go to 58 from 57.6, economic sentiment to 9 from 4.6, and business sentiment to 3 from 0.5. Those all look better.
Brazil’s retail sales should continue weak at -5.8% y/y, from -5.3% y/y prior.
On Wednesday, The City of Buenos Aires CPI should arrive in around the 47.2% y/y prior rate.
The EU’s Juncker speaks at the EU parliament.
Average earnings in the UK (including bonus) looks to be around the prior +2.4% y/y growth rate.
The UK unemployment rate is 4.9%, similar to the USA.
On Thursday, the unemployment rate in Australia should be 5.8%.
The SNB (central bank) in Switzerland announces its monetary policy.
UK ex-auto & fuel retail sales data comes out. Look for a +4.8% y/y rate from the prior +5.4%.
Greece’s unemployment rate is 23.4%.
The BoE monetary policy committee meets and issues a rate decision.
US initial claims look low again at 265K. US capacity utilization will print. The prior number was 75.6%. US retail sales data will print too. The forecast is for a +0.3% m/m increase. That’s a +3.6% annual rate.
On Friday, the EU leaders speak about Brexit.
A monthly economic report is released in Japan.
Russia issues its latest monetary policy rate. The idea is that there is a cut to 10% from 10.5% there.
U of Michigan consumer sentiment looks to be confirmed at 91.5, up from a prior 89.8.