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Apple Tops Q4 Earnings & Revenue Estimates: Buy, Sell or Hold Shares?

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Apple (AAPL - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 adjusted earnings of $1.64 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.07%.

GAAP earnings, which include 67 cents related to a one-time income tax charge ($10.2 billion) due to the reversal of the European General Court's State Aid decision, was 97 cents, down 33.6% year over year. 

AAPL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in all the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 5.05%.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Apple shares were down more than 1.8% in pre-market trading following the fiscal fourth-quarter results. Apple shares have returned 21.2% year to date (YTD), underperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s return of 26.9% and the Zacks Computer – Micro Computers industry’s 20.4%.
 

Apple Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Apple Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Apple Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Apple Inc. Quote

 

AAPL shares have also lagged its closest peers like Dell Technologies (DELL - Free Report) and HP (HPQ - Free Report) but beat Lenovo. YTD, Dell Technologies and HP shares appreciated 61.6% and 18%, respectively, while Lenovo fell 5.4%.

Year-to-Date Performance Chart

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Before diving into AAPL’s investment prospects, let’s take a glance at its quarterly numbers.

Apple’s Q4 Top-Line Rides on Strong Services Growth

Net sales increased 6.1% year over year to $94.93 billion and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.39%. Unfavorable forex hurt net sales by 230 basis points (bps).

Services revenues grew 12% from the year-ago quarter to $24.97 billion and accounted for 26.3% of sales. The figure beat the consensus mark by 0.59%.

Apple now has more than 1 billion paid subscribers across its Services portfolio, more than double what it had four years ago. Paid subscriptions grew double-digits year over year in the reported quarter.

iPhone sales increased 5.5% from the year-ago quarter to $46.22 billion and accounted for 48.7% of total sales. iPhone sales beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.59%. 

Overall, product sales (71.8% of sales) climbed 4.1% year over year to $69.96 billion.

Apple’s China Sales Remains Weak, Europe & Asia Jumps

Greater China sales decreased 0.3% year over year, fully offset by strong revenues from the Rest of Asia Pacific and Europe, which increased 16.6% and 11%, respectively.

While America’s sales inched up 3.9%, Japan’s sales increased 7.6%.

Mac & iPad Sales Up, Wearables Decline

Non-iPhone revenues (iPad, Mac and Wearables) increased 1.5% year over year on a combined basis.

Mac sales of $7.74 billion increased 1.7% from the year-ago quarter and accounted for 8.2% of total sales. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.19%. 

iPad sales of $6.95 billion increased 7.9% year over year and accounted for 7.3% of total sales. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.31%. 

Wearables, Home and Accessories sales decreased 3% year over year to $9.04 billion and accounted for 9.5% of net sales. The figure beat the consensus mark by 4.67%.

Apple Expands Gross & Operating Margin Y/Y

The gross margin of 46.2% expanded 110 bps on a year-over-year basis. The gross margin contracted 30 bps sequentially due to an unfavorable product mix.

Products’ gross margin expanded 100 bps sequentially to 36.3% due to a favorable mix. Services’ gross margin was 74%, unchanged sequentially.

Operating expenses rose 6.2% year over year to $14.29 billion due to a 6.3% increase in research & development expenses and a 6% improvement in selling, general & administrative expenses. 

Operating margin expanded 100 bps on a year-over-year basis to 31.2%.

Apple’s Balance Sheet Remains Strong

As of Sept. 29, 2024, cash & marketable securities were $156.65 billion compared with term debt of $106.63 billion.

Apple returned nearly $29 billion in the reported quarter through dividend payouts ($3.8 billion) and share repurchases ($25 billion).

Apple Q4 Revenues to Grow on Strong Service Business

Apple expects the December quarter’s (first-quarter fiscal 2025) revenues to grow low to mid-single digits on a year-over-year basis.

For the Services segment, Apple expects a double-digit growth rate similar to fiscal 2024.

Gross margin is expected to be 46-47% in the first quarter of fiscal 2025. Operating expenses are expected to be between $15.3 billion and $15.5 billion.

AAPL Shares: Buy, Sell or Hold Post Q4 Earnings?

AAPL has been on the investors' radar thanks to its AI push with the introduction of Apple Intelligence, an advanced personal intelligence system seamlessly integrated into iOS 18, iPadOS 18 and macOS Sequoia. Apple Intelligence features are now available in U.S. English for iPhone, iPad, and Mac users.

Apple’s AI push is expected to bring consumer-focused AI-enabled PCs into the market, thereby aiding PC shipments in the long haul. 

AAPL has been playing catch-up in the AI space compared with Alphabet, Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) and Amazon, its peers in the “Magnificent 7” group. 

However, we believe the upside in Apple shares is limited in the near term. Apple’s next phase of growth is heavily dependent on the success of Apple Intelligence, the benefits of which are already priced in the stock price, in our view.

Apple’s valuation is stretched at the moment, as suggested by the Value Score of D, which makes the stock risky.

In terms of the forward 12-month Price/Earnings ratio, AAPL is trading at 29.77X, higher than the sector’s 26.93X.

Price/Earnings Ratio (F12M)

 

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

 

Currently, Apple carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which implies that investors should wait for a better entry point to accumulate the stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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