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American Airlines (AAL) Moves 16.8% Higher: Will This Strength Last?

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American Airlines (AAL - Free Report) shares rallied 16.8% in the last trading session to close at $17.38. This move can be attributable to notable volume with a higher number of shares being traded than in a typical session. This compares to the stock's 6.3% gain over the past four weeks.

The uptick was owing to the fact that AAL lifted its fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share guidance. The projection was lifted owing to favorable pricing and revenue environment. It expects fourth-quarter total revenues per available seat miles to be approximately flat to up 1% from the same period in 2023 (earlier guidance was for a decline in the 1-3% band).  The company presently expects fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share to be between approximately 55 cents and 75 cents (earlier guidance was in the 25-50 cents range). Management now expects non-fuel unit costs (adjusted) in the fourth quarter of 2024 to increase in the 5-6% band year over year (earlier projection was for a rise in the 4-6% band).

This world's largest airline is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.41 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +41.4%. Revenues are expected to be $13.16 billion, up 0.7% from the year-ago quarter.

While earnings and revenue growth expectations are important in evaluating the potential strength in a stock, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

For American Airlines, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 2.8% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. And a positive trend in earnings estimate revision usually translates into price appreciation. So, make sure to keep an eye on AAL going forward to see if this recent jump can turn into more strength down the road.

The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>

American Airlines is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Southwest Airlines (LUV - Free Report) , another stock in the same industry, closed the last trading session 2% higher at $34.84. LUV has returned 8.8% in the past month.

For Southwest, the consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming report has changed +5.8% over the past month to $0.39. This represents a change of +5.4% from what the company reported a year ago. Southwest currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy).


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