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Time to Offload American Eagle (AEO) Stock: Here's Why
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Shares of American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO - Free Report) which have exhibited an impressive growth rate of nearly 30% in the past two years, have been struggling of late. In fact, the shares of this Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) company have declined 6.8% in the past three months, underperforming the Zacks categorized Retail-Apparel/Shoe industry which has witnessed a growth of 5.9% in the same time frame.
What is Hurting the Stock?
Although in third-quarter fiscal 2016, the company witnessed record sales and achieved a double-digit earnings growth rate. However, its weak fourth-quarter guidance cast a shadow on the company’s future results. The company anticipates comps for the fiscal fourth quarter to be flat to up low-single digits. Management envisions earnings per share in the range of 37 cents to 39 cents, reflecting a decline from fourth-quarter fiscal 2015 earnings of 42 cents.
Weak fourth-quarter fiscal 2016 forecast gives an indication that the retailer will face a tough holiday season. Notably, during the holiday season retailers stay on their toes, flooding the market with offers and promotions. They strive to sweep buyers off their feet with early-hour store openings, huge discounts, promotional strategies, and free shipping on online purchases. Since the season accounts for a sizeable chunk of yearly revenues and profits, a dismal performance will hamper growth.
How Estimates are Faring?
Let’s look at American Eagle Outfitters earnings estimate revisions in order to get a clear picture of what analysts are thinking about the stock. In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2016 declined 4 cents to $1.27, whereas for the fourth quarter estimates have decreased 13.3% to 39 cents. Moreover, for fiscal 2017 the Zacks Consensus Estimate has moved down 5 cents to $1.38 in same time period.
Burlington Stores delivered an average positive earnings surprise of 25.6% in the trailing four quarters and has a long-term earnings growth rate of 19.9%.
Zumiez delivered an average positive earnings surprise of 30.9% in the trailing four quarters and has a long-term earnings growth rate of 15%.
The Tile Shop Holdings delivered an average positive earnings surprise of 15.1% in the trailing four quarters and has a long-term earnings growth rate of 25%.
The Best Place to Start Your Stock Search
Today, you are invited to download the full list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 ""Strong Buy"" stocks – absolutely free of charge. Since 1988, Zacks Rank #1 stocks have nearly tripled the market, with average gains of +26% per year. Plus, you can access the list of portfolio-killing Zacks Rank #5 ""Strong Sells"" and other private research. See these stocks free >>
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Time to Offload American Eagle (AEO) Stock: Here's Why
Shares of American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO - Free Report) which have exhibited an impressive growth rate of nearly 30% in the past two years, have been struggling of late. In fact, the shares of this Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) company have declined 6.8% in the past three months, underperforming the Zacks categorized Retail-Apparel/Shoe industry which has witnessed a growth of 5.9% in the same time frame.
What is Hurting the Stock?
Although in third-quarter fiscal 2016, the company witnessed record sales and achieved a double-digit earnings growth rate. However, its weak fourth-quarter guidance cast a shadow on the company’s future results. The company anticipates comps for the fiscal fourth quarter to be flat to up low-single digits. Management envisions earnings per share in the range of 37 cents to 39 cents, reflecting a decline from fourth-quarter fiscal 2015 earnings of 42 cents.
Weak fourth-quarter fiscal 2016 forecast gives an indication that the retailer will face a tough holiday season. Notably, during the holiday season retailers stay on their toes, flooding the market with offers and promotions. They strive to sweep buyers off their feet with early-hour store openings, huge discounts, promotional strategies, and free shipping on online purchases. Since the season accounts for a sizeable chunk of yearly revenues and profits, a dismal performance will hamper growth.
How Estimates are Faring?
Let’s look at American Eagle Outfitters earnings estimate revisions in order to get a clear picture of what analysts are thinking about the stock. In the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2016 declined 4 cents to $1.27, whereas for the fourth quarter estimates have decreased 13.3% to 39 cents. Moreover, for fiscal 2017 the Zacks Consensus Estimate has moved down 5 cents to $1.38 in same time period.
Stocks to Consider
Better-ranked stocks include Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL - Free Report) , Zumiez, Inc. (ZUMZ - Free Report) , both these stocks sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), while The Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Burlington Stores delivered an average positive earnings surprise of 25.6% in the trailing four quarters and has a long-term earnings growth rate of 19.9%.
Zumiez delivered an average positive earnings surprise of 30.9% in the trailing four quarters and has a long-term earnings growth rate of 15%.
The Tile Shop Holdings delivered an average positive earnings surprise of 15.1% in the trailing four quarters and has a long-term earnings growth rate of 25%.
The Best Place to Start Your Stock Search
Today, you are invited to download the full list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 ""Strong Buy"" stocks – absolutely free of charge. Since 1988, Zacks Rank #1 stocks have nearly tripled the market, with average gains of +26% per year. Plus, you can access the list of portfolio-killing Zacks Rank #5 ""Strong Sells"" and other private research. See these stocks free >>