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Mellanox (MLNX) Misses Q4 Earnings Estimates, Guides Low

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Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. reported earnings (including stock based compensation) of 49 cents per share in fourth-quarter 2016, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3 cents. Excluding stock-based compensation, earnings were 82 cents per share, which increased 6.5% from the year-ago quarter.

Revenues increased 25.3% year over year to $221.7 million primarily driven by strong customer adoption of 100 Gigabit EDR solutions in machine learning, artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, database, storage and more.

Also, InfiBand’s adoption helped Mellanox to continue its leadership position in the high-performance interconnects space. However, revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $225 million.

We note that Mellanox’s shares fell 13.7% in after-hour trading. Also, the company’s shares have underperformed the Zacks Electronics Semiconductors industry in the last one year. While the industry gained 71.4%, Mellanox declined 12%.

Revenue Details

In fourth-quarter 2016, InfiniBand revenues grew 10% sequentially and 17% on a year-over-year basis.

On the other hand, Ethernet revenues grew 54% on a year-over-year basis as the company witnessed robust growth in 25 gigabit, 50 gigabit and 10 gigabit Ethernet solutions. We note that the company’s Ethernet solutions are gradually gaining traction with the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of servers worldwide. 

However, as customers continue to shift to the 25 gigabit, 50 gigabit and 100 gigabit solutions, demand for Mellanox’s 40 gigabit Ethernet solutions is on a decline. Although 40 gigabit revenues grew on a year-over-year basis, it declined during the second half of 2016.

The company’s management believes that the transition to 25 gigabit, 50 gigabit and 100 gigabit Ethernet will help Mellanox to post multi-year growth across various sectors such as cloud, storage, hyperscale and machine learning.

Network processor revenues grew year over year backed by EZchip, which the company acquired in Feb 2016.

Operating Results

Non-GAAP gross margin was 71.6%, which expanded 24.9% on a year-over-year basis.

Reported R&D expenses increased 160 basis points (bps). Similarly, reported sales and marketing expenses increased 100 bps. On the other hand, reported general and administrative expenses decreased 120 bps.  

Non-GAAP operating income was $27.2 million compared with a gain of $23.7 million in the year-ago quarter.

Balance Sheet

Mellanox exited the fourth quarter with cash and cash equivalent balance of $56.8 million, down $206.4 million on a year-over-year basis.

Inventory was $65.2 million, up 4.9% on a year-over-year basis.

Guidance

Mellanox’s management expects first-quarter 2017 revenues to remain in a range of $200 million to $210 million. However, due to seasonal factors, InfiBand revenues are expected to be down on a sequential basis.

Non-GAAP gross margin is expected in a range of 71% to 72%. Moreover, Mellanox’s management expects non-GAAP operating expenses to increase 3% to 5%.

Also, the company expects to incur $15.8 million to $16.3 million as stock-based compensation expense in the first quarter of 2017.

Our Take

Although Mellanox missed the Zacks Consensus Estimates on both earnings and revenues, we believe the transition from 40 gigabit to 25 gigabit, 50 gigabit and 100 gigabit Ethernet solutions augurs well for the company in the long run due to growing demand for such products.  

Moreover, InfiniBand’s strong positioning (85% market share) in the HDR solutions space remains a positive for the company.

Also, new design wins for Spectrum products is likely to benefit the company.

Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Zacks Rank

Mellanox has Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Some better-ranked stocks in the broader technology space include Applied Optoelectronics, (AAOI - Free Report) , Broadcom Limited (AVGO - Free Report) , and ACI Worldwide (ACIW - Free Report) each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Notably, the consensus estimate for Applied Optoelectronics’ current year has improved to 94 cents from 80 cents over the last 30 days.

Similarly, the consensus estimate for Broadcom’s current quarter has improved to $3.02 from $2.68 over the last 60 days.

Last but not the least, the consensus estimate for ACI Worldwide’s current year has remained stable at 38 cents over the last seven days.

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