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What's in Store for NRG Energy (NRG) this Earnings Season?

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NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG - Free Report) is set to report fourth-quarter 2016 results before market open on Feb 28. The company posted a positive earnings surprise of 35.1% last quarter, bringing the trailing four-quarter average to a positive 22.58%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

NRG Energy’s revenues are expected to decrease because of above-average temperatures in its service territories in the fourth quarter.

Energy margins remain under pressure in lieu of new capacity performance requirements, low growth and a significant amount of new gas deals coming online in the next few years, resulting in a less-than-favorable outlook for energy margins.

On the flip side, NRG Energy’s focus on expanding its 4.4 gigawatt (GW) renewable portfolio will contribute to its stable base of earnings in the fourth quarter and provide visibility to future cash flows.

The company is on track to achieve cost savings of $400 million through 2017 by way of reduction in administrative, marketing and development expenses, and operating and maintenance expense. This will aid margins in the to-be reported quarter.

Moreover, NRG Energy is working to lower its debt levels and strengthen its balance sheet. The company intends to reduce corporate debt by an additional $400 million through 2017. Reduction in debts will lower the company’s interest burden and positively impact its bottom line.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that NRG Energy is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. But that is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: NRG Energy has an Earnings ESP of -60.00%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate stands at a loss of 16 cents while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of 10 cents.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

NRG Energy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

NRG Energy, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | NRG Energy, Inc. Quote

Zacks Rank: Though the company’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the possibility of a beat, its negative ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Peer Releases

American Electric Power Co., Inc. (AEP - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2016 operating earnings of 67 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 55 cents by 21.8%.

NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2016 adjusted earnings of $1.21 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.29 by 6.2%. Reported earnings were, however, up 3.4% year over year.

WEC Energy Group (WEC - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2016 adjusted earnings of 61 cents per share, a penny below both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and the year-ago figure.

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