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Buckle (BKE) to Post Q4 Earnings: Will the Stock Disappoint?

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The Buckle, Inc. (BKE - Free Report) is all set to release the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016 results on Mar 10. The question lingering in investors’ minds is whether this retailer of casual apparel, footwear and accessories will be able to deliver a positive earnings surprise in the to-be-reported quarter.

Buckle had recorded negative earnings surprises of 11.1%, 3.0% and 5.9% in the first, second and third quarters of fiscal 2016, respectively. Further, it posted an average miss of 3.6% in the trailing four quarters.

Let’s see how things are shaping up prior to this announcement.

What to Expect?

A glimpse of Buckle’s earnings estimates revision reveals that the Zacks Consensus Estimate for both the fourth quarter and fiscal 2016 has been stable in the last 30 days. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter and fiscal 2016 is pegged at 78 cents and $2.07, respectively, down nearly 31% and 32% from the year-ago quarter and fiscal 2015.

Buckle forms part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. Per the latest Earnings Outlook, the sector’s earnings are estimated to rise 1.3% whereas revenues are projected to improve 4.3%. In addition, we noted that the Retail-Wholesale sector has lagged the S&P 500 index in the past six months. While the Zacks categorized sector rose 3.8%, the S&P 500 index gained 11% over the said time frame.

Moreover, shares of Buckle have declined nearly 24.9% in the past six months, underperforming the Zacks categorized Retail – Apparel/Shoe industry, which fell 11.6%.



What Does the Zacks Model Unveil?

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Buckle is likely to beat earnings estimates this quarter. A stock needs to have both a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) and a positive Earnings ESP for this to happen. You may uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Buckle has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 78 cents. Moreover, the company carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We caution against Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Factors at Play

Buckle has not been able to turn the performance of its Women’s business around. Women's merchandise sales were down about 18.5% in the third quarter, while Men's merchandise sales dropped 9%. Moreover, a competitive retail landscape and cautious consumer spending have been weighing upon the company’s performance.

While Buckle’s net sales decreased 17.2% in January, 15.1% in December and 15.9% in November, comparable-store sales (comps) declined 17.6%, 15.5%, and 16.2% respectively, over the same time frame.

Comps for the 13-week period ended Jan 28, 2017, declined 16.1%, while net sales over the period decreased 15.7% to $280 million from $332 million reported in the year-ago period.

Recently, the company came out with sales results for the four-week period ended Feb 25. It generated net sales of $62.8 million in February, down 23.3% year over year. Further, comps fell 23.2% year over year in the said time period.

However, the company is taking numerous initiatives to boost its top line. Management has launched the Buckle App to make new products easily available and is also trying all means to improve its store traffic. Further, the company is also taking measures to enhance its brands’ assortments. Whether these initiatives will actually benefit the company or not, is a wait-and-watch story.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

DSW Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +6.25% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

GMS Inc. (GMS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +15.63% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Staples, Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +4.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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