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Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) Down 3% Since Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 3% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock’s next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Acadia Healthcare Tops Q4 Earnings, Gives 2017 View
 
Acadia Healthcare reported fourth-quarter 2016 adjusted earnings of $0.59 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $0.04 per share. Earnings were flat year over year.
 
Quarter Details
 
The company registered 42% year-over-year growth in revenues in the quarter. However, the quarterly revenues of approximately $702 million missed the consensus mark by $5 million, failing to impress investors.
 
The year-over-year upside in revenues may be attributed to the addition of beds at Acadia’s facilities and 6.3% increase in same facility revenues. The improvement in same facility revenues, in turn, can be attributed to a 6.1% rise in patient days. Notably, revenue per patient day inched up 0.1% on a year-over-year basis.
 
The U.S. same facility revenues were up 6.6% from the year-ago quarter. The company also recorded a 6.5% increase in patient days from 2015.
 
The U.K. same facility revenues inched up 4.2% year over year to $73 million. Number of patient days rose 4.7% from the year-ago quarter.
 
We note that revenues per patient day were up 0.1% in the U.S. but down 1.0% in the U.K.
 
Total expenses increased 49% year over year to $660.5 million.
 
Same facility adjusted EBITDA margin was 26.3% compared with 26.0% in the year-ago quarter.
 
2016 Highlights
 
Adjusted earnings came at $2.45 per share on revenues of $2.8 billion. While revenues grew 56%, the bottom line improved 10%.
 
Financial Update
 
Cash and cash equivalents at year-end 2016 were $57.1 million, up from $11.2 million at year-end 2015.
 
Long term debt increased to $3.2 billion from $2.2 billion at the end of 2015.
 
Net cash provided by operating activities of $361.5 million increased 49% from 2015.
 
2017 Guidance
 
Acadia Healthcare estimates adjusted earnings per diluted between $2.40 and $2.50 on revenues between $2.85 billion and $2.9 billion.
 
Adjusted EBITDA is expected between $625 million and $640 million.
 
For first quarter, adjusted earnings per diluted share is projected in the range of $0.45–$0.47.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Following the release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. There have been five downward revisions for the current quarter. In the past month, the consensus estimate also shifted downward by 18.6% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Acadia Healthcare's stock has a nice Growth Score of 'B', though it is lagging a lot on the momentum front with an 'F'. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of 'B' on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'B'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Based on our scores, the stock is suitable for value and growth investors.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock. The magnitude of these revisions also indicates a downward shift. Notably, the stock has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We are expecting an below average return from the stock in the next few months.


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