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Why Is Autoliv (ALV) Down 2.4% Since the Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Autoliv, Inc. (ALV - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 2.4% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock’s next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Autoliv Misses Fourth-Quarter Earnings and Revenues Estimates

Autoliv reported adjusted earnings of $1.71 per share in the fourth quarter of 2016 that missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.83. Also, earnings decreased 17.8% from $2.08 per share reported a year ago. Earnings per share, on a reported basis, amounted to $1.67 in fourth quarter of 2016 compared with $2.10 in the year-ago quarter.

Autoliv reported record consolidated revenues of $2.6 billion, up 3.3% year over year, but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.69 billion. Excluding negative currency translation effects and the impact of acquisitions, organic sales improved 1.1%, exceeding the company’s expectation of flat organic sales.

Operating income decreased 15.1% to $238.7 million (or 9.2% of sales) from $281.3 million (or 11.2% of sales) in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted operating margin was 9.3% in the reported quarter, in line with the company’s expectation of above 9%.

2016 Results

Autoliv reported record consolidated revenues of $10.1 billion in 2016, up 9.8% from 2015. However, revenues narrowly missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.2 billion. Excluding negative currency translation effects of 2% and the impact of acquisitions of close to 5%, organic sales improved more than 7%.

Adjusted earnings per share improved 1.5% from 2015 to $6.75 in 2016, but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.84. Earnings were boosted by lower costs, partially offset by currency headwinds.

Segment Results

Sales at the Passive Safety segment fell 1.6% year over year to $2.04 billion in the reported quarter. Excluding negative currency translation effects, organic sales increased almost 1%. The segment’s operating income fell 13.6% to $228.5 million (11.2% of sales) from $264.5 million (12.8% of sales) in the prior-year quarter. Operating margins were weakened by higher expenditure on research and development as well as other costs to support growth.

Sales at the Electronics segment grew 26.1% year over year to $584.1 million. Organic sales were up 3.4%. The Autoliv-Nissin Brake Systems (ANBS) joint venture impacted sales positively. Operating income from the division fell 7.7% to $29.8 million (5.1% of sales) from $32.3 million (7% of sales) in the prior-year quarter. Margins were negatively affected due to costs related to the formation of ANBS and long-term development plans.

Financial Position

Autoliv had cash and cash equivalents of $1.23 billion as of Dec 31, 2016, lower than the $1.33 billion reported as of Dec 31, 2015. Total debt was almost in line year over year at $1.54 billion as of Dec 31, 2016.

In full year 2016, the company’s cash flow from operations increased to $868.4 million from the year-ago figure of $750.5 million. Net capital expenditures rose to $499 million from the year-ago recorded figure of $450 million.

Guidance

Autoliv expects organic sales to grow by 3% year over year in the first quarter of 2017. Recent acquisitions and currency translations are expected to have a positive impact of about 2% on sales. This impact is likely to result in consolidated sales growth of over 5%. The adjusted operating margin in the first quarter is expected to be around 8%.

Autoliv expects full-year 2017 organic sales to increase around 4%. The recent acquisitions and currency translation are expected have a 2% adverse impact on sales. Based on these factors, consolidated sales are expected to rise around 2%. Adjusted operating margin, excluding costs for capacity alignments and antitrust related matters, is likely to be 8.5% in 2017.

Tax rate for full-year 2017 is likely to be around 32%. Operating cash flows are anticipated to be about $0.8 billion, excluding any discrete items, while capital expenditure for supporting the company’s growth plans are projected to be in the range of 5–6% of sales.

From 2015 onward, Autoliv has signed various agreements with original equipment manufacturers to supply replacement airbag inflators. The company expects that deliveries will be above 30 million units over the 2015–2018 period.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Analysts were quiet during the last one month period as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

Autoliv, Inc. Price and Consensus

 

Autoliv, Inc. Price and Consensus | Autoliv, Inc. Quote

VGM Scores

At this time, Autoliv's stock has a nice Growth Score of 'B', a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was also allocated a grade of 'B' on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'A'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Based on our scores, the stock is equally suitable for value, momentum and growth investors.

Outlook

The stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting a inline eturn from the stock in the next few months.


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