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Why Is Winnebago (WGO) Down 12.3% Since the Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Winnebago Industries, Inc. (WGO - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 12.3% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Winnebago Beats Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Winnebago recorded adjusted earnings of $0.46 per share in second-quarter fiscal 2017 (ended Feb 25, 2017), 31.4% higher than the $0.35 earned in the prior-year quarter. Also, the figure narrowly surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.45.

Net income, on a reported basis, increased 63.3% to $15.3 million or $0.48 per share from $9.4 million or $0.35 per share in the year-ago quarter.

Revenues in the second quarter rose 64.2% to $370.5 million from $225.7 million in the prior-ago quarter. Moreover, the figure outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $342.5 million. The upside in the top line was driven by strong growth of the Towable business, partially offset by modest decline in Motorized revenues.

Operating profit in the reported quarter rose to $28.4 million from $13.5 million in the prior-year quarter. Gross profit improved to $49.3 million or 13.3% of sales from $25.3 million or 11.2% recorded a year ago.

Segment Results

Revenues from Motorized segment declined 3% to $198.9 million due to lower average selling price, partly offset by higher volumes. Adjusted EBITDA dropped 22.3% to $9.1 million owing to product mix, pressure on pricing as well as accelerating operations in the West Coast.

Revenues from the Towable segment went up to $171.6 million from $20.6 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2016. The rise was driven by higher revenues from the Grand Design acquisition and strong organic growth from Winnebago-branded Towable products. Adjusted EBITDA went up to $20 million from $1.6 million in the year-ago quarter. The quarter marked the first full quarter of Grand Design being a part of the company.

Financial Position

Winnebago had cash and cash equivalents of $10.9 million as of Feb 25, 2017, compared with $85.6 million as of Aug 27, 2016

In the first half of fiscal 2017, Winnebago's cash flow from operations was $5.1 million, compared with outflow of $8.8 million in the year-ago period. Capital expenditure decreased to $6.9 million from $16.4 million in the first half of fiscal 2016.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Following the release and in the last month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. There has been one revision lower for the current quarter.

VGM Scores

At this time, Winnebago's stock has an average Growth Score of 'C', though it is lagging a lot on the momentum front with an 'F'. However, the stock was allocated a grade of 'B' on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of 'C'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Our style scores indicate that the stock is more suitable for value investors than growth investors.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock. The magnitude of this revision also indicates a downward shift. Notably, the stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We are expecting an inline return from the stock in the next few months.


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