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Why Is Welltower (HCN) Up 5.6% Since the Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Welltower Inc. . Shares have added about 5.6% in the past month, outperforming the market and the DJIA in that time frame.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to their next earnings release, or is the stock due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Welltower's Q1 FFO Meets Estimates, Revenues Beat

Welltower came up with normalized FFO per share of $1.05 for first-quarter 2017, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, FFO was lower than the prior-year quarter figure of $1.13.

In the quarter, the company generated $1.1 billion proceeds through disposition.

Welltower posted revenues of around $1.06 billion, which came in higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.05 billion. The prior-year quarter’s revenues were also $1.05 billion.

Quarter in Detail

Adjusted senior housing operating same-store net operating income (NOI) grew 1.9% year over year. Moreover, same-store revenues per occupied room grew at 4.1%.

Welltower completed gross investments of $217 million (pro rata basis) in the quarter. This comprised $104 million in acquisitions/joint ventures, $102 million in development funding and $11 million in loans. These investments were completed with existing relationships.

The company exited the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $380 million, down from $419.4 million at the end of 2016. Moreover, as of Mar 31, 2017, the company had $2.5 billion of available borrowing capacity under its primary unsecured credit facility. Further, the company generated around $112 million through its ATM and DRIP programs.

2017 Outlook

Welltower has reaffirmed its 2017 outlook. The company expects normalized FFO per share guidance to remain in the range of $4.15–$4.25. Also, the company anticipates its 2017 same-store cash NOI growth to remain in the range of 2–3%.

Further, in sync with the strategic repositioning of its premier health care portfolio, the company expects 2017 disposition to be around $2 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Following the release and in the last month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. There have been two revisions lower for the current quarter.

Welltower Inc. Price and Consensus

 

VGM Scores

At this time, the stock has an average Growth Score of 'C', though it is lagging a bit on the momentum front with an 'D'. Charting the exact same path, the stock was allocated a grade of 'D' on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, stocks has an aggregte VGM Score of 'D'. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

The company's stock is suitable solely for growth based on our styles scores.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock. The magnitude of this revision also indicates a downward shift.  It's no surprise that the stock has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We are expecting a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

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