Artificial intelligence (AI) may be a hot growth theme right now, but there’s an indication that the underlying trend shows a preference for value. Two of the best-performing stocks of 2025 reflect something entirely different — the real condition of the U.S. economy.

Two of the top performers Dollar Tree (DLTR Quick QuoteDLTR - Free Report) and Dollar General (DG Quick QuoteDG - Free Report) have seen their shares surge about 57% and 64% year to date, respectively — outperforming even NVIDIA’s (NVDA Quick QuoteNVDA - Free Report) 34.2% gain, as quoted in a Yahoo Finance article.

The dollar duo’s gains trumped that ofMeta, NVIDIA, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, or Tesla, in short, the AI leaders and even bitcoin. Note that AI leaders’ ETF Roundhill Magnificent Seven (MAGS Quick QuoteMAGS - Free Report) has jumped 23.7% so far this year, underperforming DLTR and DG.

Discount Retailers Reveal the Real Story of the Economy

Both companies, which operate thousands of stores and act as essential shopping hubs for American households, reported earnings that sent a clear message about consumer behavior. Dollar General reported a same-store sales rise of 2.5% in Q3.

Dollar Tree’s same-store sales jumped 4.2%, while Target (TGT Quick QuoteTGT - Free Report) saw a 3.8% decline in its latest quarter. Dollar Tree also added 3 million new shoppers, building on its already massive customer base of 100 million, as quoted in a Yahoo Finance article.

Higher-Income Shoppers Are “Trading Down”

Dollar Tree CEO Michael Creedon highlighted a shift that underscores the growing affordability pressures, as mentioned on the same Yahoo Finance article. About 60% of new shoppers of Dollar Tree earn over $100,000, 30% earn $60,000-$100,000, and the remaining earn under $60,000, per Michael Creedon.

Creedon summed up the scenario as wealthier consumers are “trading down” (as quoted on the above-said Yahoo Finance article) and lower-income families are depending more on dollar stores. Meanwhile, Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos reported rising customer traffic but more restrained spending per trip.

Should You Buy Value & Dividend ETFs?

The rise of Dollar Tree and Dollar Generaland the above-mentioned spending pattern suggests that value-focused investments should thrive in the near term as the economic condition remains edgy. On the surface, the economy looks super-strong, mainly due to AI-led investment.But underneath, most of the economy is chugging along. A weaker job market is weighing on the consumers’ sentiment and adding to the affordability crisis.

In a volatile scenario, dividend ETFs normally come to the rescue. The hunt for dividends in the equity market is always on, irrespective of how it is behaving. After all, who doesn’t like a steady stream of current income along with capital gains?And if investors are mired in a web of equity market uncertainty, global growth worries and geopolitical crisis, the lure for dividend investing increases further.

Value stocks trade at low valuations. These stocks come from sectors that have steady demand even in slowdowns (e.g. staples, healthcare and utilities). In an uncertain backdrop, investors prioritize stable cash flow, predictable earnings and possibly higher current income (which value stocks are normally known for).

ETFs in Focus

DLTR and DG stocks have exposure to ETFs like Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Staples ETF (RSPS Quick QuoteRSPS - Free Report) and Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF (RPV Quick QuoteRPV - Free Report) . Hence, these two ETFs deserve a look.

Apart from those two, investors can have a look at Global X U.S. Cash Flow Kings 100 ETF (FLOW Quick QuoteFLOW - Free Report) and Monarch Dividend Plus ETF (MDPL Quick QuoteMDPL - Free Report) . Investors can play other dividend ETFs like State Street SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY Quick QuoteSDY - Free Report) .