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Why Is Valero Energy (VLO) Up 9.1% Since the Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Valero Energy Corporation (VLO - Free Report) . Shares have added about 9.1% in that time frame, outperforming the market.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Third Quarter 2017 Results

Valero Energy posted adjusted third-quarter 2017 income of $1.91 per share that surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.83 and the year-ago adjusted profit of $1.24.

Total revenues in the quarter grew 20.4% year over year to $23,562 million from $19,649 million. The top line also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20,183 million.

Higher throughput margin owing to 92% throughput capacity utilization supported Valero Energy’s strong third-quarter results.

Throughput Volumes

During the quarter, refining throughput volumes were nearly 3 million barrels a day, almost in line with the year-earlier level.

By feedstock composition, sweet crude, medium/light sour crude and heavy sour crude accounted for 52.4%, 16.3% and 17.3%, respectively. Residuals, other feedstock as well as blendstocks and others accounted for the remaining.

The Gulf Coast accounted for approximately 57% of the total throughput volume. The Mid-Continent, North Atlantic and West Coast regions contributed 16%, 17% and 10%, respectively.

Throughput Margins

Company-wide throughput margins increased to $10.94 per barrel from the year-ago level of $8.72. Throughput capacity utilization of 92% during this quarter supported the outperformance.

Average throughput margin realized was $9.76 per barrel in the U.S. Gulf Coast as against $8.60 in the year-earlier period. The metric was $13.31 per barrel in the U.S. Mid-Continent versus $8.85 a year ago. Throughput margin realized was $11.51 a barrel in the North Atlantic compared with $7.74 last year.

Refining operating expense per barrel was $3.71 compared with $3.54 in the year-ago quarter. Depreciation and amortization expenses increased year over year to $1.71 a barrel from $1.63.

Capital Expenditure & Balance Sheet

Third-quarter capital expenditure totaled $565 million, including $73 million for turnarounds and catalyst expenditure. At the end of the quarter under review, the company had cash and temporary cash investments of $5.2 billion and debt of $8.5 billion. Valero Energy also rewarded shareholders with dividends and share buybacks worth $600 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates flatlined during the past month. There has been one revision higher for the current quarter compared to one lower. While looking back an additional 30 days, we can see upward momentum. There have been five moves up in the last two months. In the past month, the consensus estimate has shifted by 9.9% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Valero Energy's stock has a nice Growth Score of B, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. The stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Based on our scores, the stock is more suitable for value investors than those looking for growth and momentum.

Outlook

Notably, the stock has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect in-line returns from the stock in the next few months.


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