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Why Is Aerie (AERI) Down 5.9% Since the Last Earnings Report?

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It has been more than a month since the last earnings report for Aerie Pharmaceuticals, Inc. . Shares have lost about 5.9% in that time frame, underperforming the market.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Aerie Reports Wider-Than-Expected Loss

Aerie posted third-quarter 2017 loss of $0.71 per share (including stock-based compensation), wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.62 and the year-ago loss of $0.67. Being a development-stage company, Aerie has not generated any revenues from product sales yet.

Quarter in Detail

In the reported quarter, research and development expenses declined 2.2% to $12.4 million. General and administrative expenses surged 86.1% to $19.7 million. Higher operating expenses in the quarter were attributed to expansion of the employee base to support operations and commercialization preparatory activities, including commercial manufacturing costs for Rhopressa.

Pipeline Updates

Aerie resubmitted a new drug application (NDA) for lead candidate Rhopressa 0.02% in Feb 2017 and expects a review period of 12 months after withdrawing the NDA filed in September 2016 as a third party manufacturing facility in Tampa, FL was not ready for pre-approval inspection by the FDA. The company initiated preparations to bring a second contract manufacturer online in 2018.

On Oct 13, the Dermatologic and Ophthalmic Drugs Advisory Committee of the FDA voted in favor of Rhopressa’s approval. The members of the committee unanimously agreed that the trials support the efficacy of netarsudil ophthalmic solution for reducing elevated intraocular pressure in patients with open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension.

In addition, majority of the members agreed that the Rhopressa’s efficacy outweigh safety risks.

The FDA has set a Prescription Drug User Fee Act date of Feb 28, 2018. We note that the FDA is not bound by the Advisory Committee’s guidance but takes its advice into consideration when reviewing drugs.

Apart from Rhopressa, Aerie is evaluating Roclatan, a once-daily, quadruple-action fixed-dose combination of Rhopressa and Xalatan. The NDA for Roclatan is expected to be filed in second-quarter 2018.  The company also initiated Mercury 3 to support filings in Europe. The trial will be a non-inferiority trial comparing Roclatan to prescribed fixed dose combination of Ganfort (a combination of the bimatoprost along with timolol), marketed by Allergan plc in Europe.

How have estimates been moving since then?

Analysts were quiet during the past month as none of them issued any earnings estimate revisions.

VGM Scores

At this time, Aerie's stock has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum is doing a bit better with a B.  The stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Zacks' style scores indicate that the company's stock is suitable solely for momentum investors.

Outlook

The stock has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We are looking for an below average return from the stock in the next few months

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