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An Early Preview of BlackRock's (BLK) Q1 Earnings Outlook

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BlackRock (BLK - Free Report) has fallen victim to the recent market downturn, but that doesn’t mean its run as an investment powerhouse will be over anytime soon. In fact, BlackRock stock has outperformed its industry for nearly a decade on its way to becoming one of the biggest investment firms in the world.

BlackRock currently boasts $6.28 trillion in assets under management, most of which comes from passive investments such as mutual funds and ETFs—including its well-known iShares brand. The firm can attribute some of its success to the overall growth of the passive investment sector, which is expected to expand going forward.

With that said, let’s take a look at what to expect from BlackRock’s upcoming first quarter 2018 financial results to see if the passive investment giant looks poised to extend its current run. 

Latest Outlook and Valuation

BlackRock’s Q1 revenues are expected to climb by 15.5% to reach $3.26 billion, based on our current Zacks Consensus Estimates. The company is also projected to see its earnings surge by 23% to hit $6.46 per share.

However, within the last 60 days, BlackRock has earned two earnings estimate revisions, with 100% agreement to the downside. These revisions lowered BlackRock’s consensus earnings estimate by 1 cent.

Heading into its soon-to-be-reported quarter, BLK is trading with a Forward P/E of 17.7. This marks a substantial premium compared to the “Financial - Investment Management” industry, which is currently trading at an average of 12.2x forward earnings.

BlackRock investors have been willing to pay a premium for the stock over the last decade as the firm consistently rewards them by outperforming the larger industry.

Latest Results

Last year, BlackRock reported the strongest net inflows in company history, with $367 billion coming under the firm’s management. This figure includes $103 billion in the fourth quarter alone. The company also made further inroads in high growth international regions, including China.

“iShares ETFs generated $245 billion of full-year net inflows, as an increasingly diverse set of institutional and retail clients are using ETFs for asset allocation and alpha generation,” BlackRock CEO Laurence Fink said in a company statement.

Price Performance and Surprise History

Another important thing to consider ahead of BlackRock’s Q1 report is the company’s history of earnings surprises and the effect that these surprises have had on share prices.

BlackRock, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

BlackRock, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise | BlackRock, Inc. Quote

We can see that BlackRock has posted mixed results over the last few years. It is also worth noting that BlackRock’s stock has performed somewhat inconsistently following the release of its quarterly earnings results.

Bottom Line

Past performance is clearly not a guarantee of future success. But we can see that even when BlackRock fails to match or top quarterly earnings estimates, its stock price eventually continues to climb—sometimes in the near-term. Furthermore, despite its recent dip, shares of BlackRock have surged nearly 36% over the last year.

BlackRock is currently a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and is set to report its first-quarter earnings results before the market opens on Thursday, April 12.

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