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What's in the Cards for BioMarin (BMRN) in Q1 Earnings?
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BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN - Free Report) will report first-quarter 2018 results on Apr 25 after market close. BioMarin delivered a negative earnings surprise of 25.0% in the last quarter.
BioMarin’s earnings track record has been decent, with the company beating estimates in three of the past four quarters, delivering an average positive surprise of 63.71%.
BioMarin shares have declined 8% this year so far. This compares favorably with 9.1% decrease registered by the industry during this period.
Let’s see how things are shaping up for the company this quarter.
Factors at Play
Key orphan disease drugs, Vimizim and Kuvan, which drove BioMarin’s top line in the past few quarters, are likely to maintain the trend this quarter too. Robust patient growth and penetration should propel the drugs’ sales.
Also, Naglazyme and Vimzin revenues vary on a quarterly basis, primarily due to inconsistent ordering patterns from some countries. On the fourth quarter 2017 conference call, the company had said that it is cautiously optimistic that sales in Brazil will be steady in 2018 but uneven buying patterns may be observed quarter to quarter.
Nevertheless, the drugs continue to witness steady patient growth and we expect the trend to continue this quarter.
We expect management to discuss how the pipeline is progressing on the conference call. Brineura, for the treatment of children with CLN2 disease – a form of Batten disease – was approved in both the United States and EU last year. Brineura generated sales of around $9 million in 2017. On the Q4 call, the company said that the focus on the initial stages of launch is on disease awareness and early diagnosis The company mentioned that new site readiness can take longer than expected, which suggests slower revenue ramp up.
On the Q1 investor call, we also expect management to comment on the launch preparation for pegvaliase. Pegvaliase, developed for treating phenylketonuria (PKU), is under review in the United States with the FDA expected to give its decision in May.
Regarding pegvaliase launch, on the Q4 call management had informed that the initial sales ramp-up of pegvaliase would be slow due to education on disease awareness and lower doses per patient in the induction titration phase. Also, the company mentioned that it expects to price pegvaliase at a modest premium to Kuvan (net annual treatment cost of about $150,000). An update is expected at the upcoming call.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively show that BioMarin is likely to beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: Its Earnings ESP is -17.99% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is 13 cents while the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged lower at 10 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: BioMarin’s Zacks Rank #2 increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings beat.
We caution against Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Stocks to Consider
Biotech stocks that have both a positive ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank include:
Amgen, Inc. (AMGN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.34% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on Apr 24.
Celgene Corporation has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on May 4.
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Image: Bigstock
What's in the Cards for BioMarin (BMRN) in Q1 Earnings?
BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN - Free Report) will report first-quarter 2018 results on Apr 25 after market close. BioMarin delivered a negative earnings surprise of 25.0% in the last quarter.
BioMarin’s earnings track record has been decent, with the company beating estimates in three of the past four quarters, delivering an average positive surprise of 63.71%.
BioMarin shares have declined 8% this year so far. This compares favorably with 9.1% decrease registered by the industry during this period.
Let’s see how things are shaping up for the company this quarter.
Factors at Play
Key orphan disease drugs, Vimizim and Kuvan, which drove BioMarin’s top line in the past few quarters, are likely to maintain the trend this quarter too. Robust patient growth and penetration should propel the drugs’ sales.
Also, Naglazyme and Vimzin revenues vary on a quarterly basis, primarily due to inconsistent ordering patterns from some countries. On the fourth quarter 2017 conference call, the company had said that it is cautiously optimistic that sales in Brazil will be steady in 2018 but uneven buying patterns may be observed quarter to quarter.
Nevertheless, the drugs continue to witness steady patient growth and we expect the trend to continue this quarter.
We expect management to discuss how the pipeline is progressing on the conference call. Brineura, for the treatment of children with CLN2 disease – a form of Batten disease – was approved in both the United States and EU last year. Brineura generated sales of around $9 million in 2017. On the Q4 call, the company said that the focus on the initial stages of launch is on disease awareness and early diagnosis The company mentioned that new site readiness can take longer than expected, which suggests slower revenue ramp up.
On the Q1 investor call, we also expect management to comment on the launch preparation for pegvaliase. Pegvaliase, developed for treating phenylketonuria (PKU), is under review in the United States with the FDA expected to give its decision in May.
Regarding pegvaliase launch, on the Q4 call management had informed that the initial sales ramp-up of pegvaliase would be slow due to education on disease awareness and lower doses per patient in the induction titration phase. Also, the company mentioned that it expects to price pegvaliase at a modest premium to Kuvan (net annual treatment cost of about $150,000). An update is expected at the upcoming call.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively show that BioMarin is likely to beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: Its Earnings ESP is -17.99% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is 13 cents while the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged lower at 10 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: BioMarin’s Zacks Rank #2 increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings beat.
We caution against Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Stocks to Consider
Biotech stocks that have both a positive ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank include:
Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. , scheduled to release results on Apr 26, has an Earnings ESP of +2.09% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Amgen, Inc. (AMGN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.34% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on Apr 24.
Celgene Corporation has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on May 4.
Will You Make a Fortune on the Shift to Electric Cars?
Here's another stock idea to consider. Much like petroleum 150 years ago, lithium power may soon shake the world, creating millionaires and reshaping geo-politics. Soon electric vehicles (EVs) may be cheaper than gas guzzlers. Some are already reaching 265 miles on a single charge.
With battery prices plummeting and charging stations set to multiply, one company stands out as the #1 stock to buy according to Zacks research.
It's not the one you think.
See This Ticker Free >>