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Murphy Oil (MUR) to Report Q1 Earnings: A Beat in the Cards?

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We expect Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports first-quarter 2018 results after the market closes on May 2. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a positive earnings surprise of 300%.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Murphy Oil is likely to beat estimates because it has the right combination of two key ingredients. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to be able to beat estimates.

Zacks ESP: Murphy Oil has an Earnings ESP of +2.22%. This is a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive surprise. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank:  The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3. The combination of a favorable Zacks Rank and positive ESP makes us reasonably confident of earnings beat this season.

Conversely, we caution against Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Murphy Oil Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Factors to Consider

Murphy Oil’s capital investments and cost-saving initiatives have paved the way for the company's growth.

The company expects its first-quarter 2018 production to be in the range of 164,000 to 168,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day (boepd) with almost 60% liquids. Sales volume is expected to be in the range of 161,000 to 165,000 boepd. Strong production volumes from Eagle Ford Shale and Kaybob Duvernay are expected to boost oil production. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter has remained flat at 59 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBOE/d) sequentially, for Canada & the United States.

The company is expected to drill a minimum of 17 wells and bring 23 wells online in Kaybob this year. Notably, five wells have been brought online in the first quarter.

Effective Jan 1, 2018, Murphy’s working interest in Kakap Gumusut field was reduced by 0.195% to 6.78%. The change in the interest is to accommodate a recent unitization agreement between the countries of Malaysia and Brunei. This adjustment is reflected in Murphy’s production guidance and going forward, the company will have oil production from Brunei. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter has decreased to 29 thousand MBOE/d from 30 thousand MBOE/d, a drop of 3.3% sequentially, for the Malaysian region.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter total revenues has increased 4.8% sequentially to $5.68 billion. Also, the consensus estimate for earnings has been revised upward by 175% to 22 cents on a sequential basis.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are a few other players in the same industry that have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG - Free Report) is expected to report first-quarter earnings 2018 on May 3. It has an Earnings ESP of +12.50% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +37.34% and a Zacks Rank #2. It is scheduled to report first-quarter 2018 earnings on May 14.

Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.26% and a Zacks Rank #1. It is slated to report first-quarter 2018 earnings on May 2.

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