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Will ACADIA (ACAD) Disappoint Investors This Earnings Season?
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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD - Free Report) is expected to release first-quarter 2018 results on May 8. In the last reported quarter, ACADIA delivered a positive earnings surprise of 5.17%. The company delivered an average positive earnings surprise of 11.24% in the last four quarters.
ACADIA’s shares have tumbled 47.5% year to date compared with the industry’s decline of 10.7%.
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Factors at Play
ACADIA is focused on developing products for treating unmet medical needs in central nervous system (“CNS”). The performance of its first approved drug, Nuplazid (pimavanserin), for treating hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson’s disease (“PD”) psychosis, has been impressive since its launch in April 2016.
The company is also on track with its multi-year plans of developing Nuplazid in indications beyond PD psychosis. The company is studying the drug in five clinical programs for Nuplazid — Alzheimer's disease agitation, Alzheimer’s disease psychosis, Schizophrenia inadequate response, Schizophrenia negative symptoms and major depressive disorders.
In October 2017, the company initiated a phase III HARMONY study in dementia-related psychosis or DRP. The company also received Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the FDA for Nuplazid for the treatment of DRP. Following an End-of-Phase II meeting with the FDA, robust positive results from one phase III study, together with supported data from prior studies with Nuplazid could serve as the basis of a supplementary new drug application.
We expect the company to provide further update on the progress of this study during first-quarter earnings call.
The company expects that full-year Nuplazid net product sales for 2018 will be between $255 million and $270 million, with net sales for the first quarter of 2018 between $45 million and $48 million. The company expects strong volume growth for Nuplazid.
What Our Model Indicates
Our proven model does not show an earnings beat for ACADIA this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — for this to happen. However, that is not the case here as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: ACADIA has an Earnings ESP of -0.36%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of 56 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: ACADIA currently has a Zacks Rank #2 which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings beat.
Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated) going into an earnings announcement especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Here are some biotech stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Adverum Biotechnologies, Inc. (ADVM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.9% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release first-quarter results on May 8.
Emergent Biosolutions Inc. (EBS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +61.8% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 3.
Wall Street’s Next Amazon
Zacks EVP Kevin Matras believes this familiar stock has only just begun its climb to become one of the greatest investments of all time. It’s a once-in-a-generation opportunity to invest in pure genius.
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Will ACADIA (ACAD) Disappoint Investors This Earnings Season?
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD - Free Report) is expected to release first-quarter 2018 results on May 8. In the last reported quarter, ACADIA delivered a positive earnings surprise of 5.17%. The company delivered an average positive earnings surprise of 11.24% in the last four quarters.
ACADIA’s shares have tumbled 47.5% year to date compared with the industry’s decline of 10.7%.
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Factors at Play
ACADIA is focused on developing products for treating unmet medical needs in central nervous system (“CNS”). The performance of its first approved drug, Nuplazid (pimavanserin), for treating hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson’s disease (“PD”) psychosis, has been impressive since its launch in April 2016.
The company is also on track with its multi-year plans of developing Nuplazid in indications beyond PD psychosis. The company is studying the drug in five clinical programs for Nuplazid — Alzheimer's disease agitation, Alzheimer’s disease psychosis, Schizophrenia inadequate response, Schizophrenia negative symptoms and major depressive disorders.
In October 2017, the company initiated a phase III HARMONY study in dementia-related psychosis or DRP. The company also received Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the FDA for Nuplazid for the treatment of DRP. Following an End-of-Phase II meeting with the FDA, robust positive results from one phase III study, together with supported data from prior studies with Nuplazid could serve as the basis of a supplementary new drug application.
We expect the company to provide further update on the progress of this study during first-quarter earnings call.
The company expects that full-year Nuplazid net product sales for 2018 will be between $255 million and $270 million, with net sales for the first quarter of 2018 between $45 million and $48 million. The company expects strong volume growth for Nuplazid.
What Our Model Indicates
Our proven model does not show an earnings beat for ACADIA this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) — for this to happen. However, that is not the case here as you will see below.
Zacks ESP: ACADIA has an Earnings ESP of -0.36%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of 56 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: ACADIA currently has a Zacks Rank #2 which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings beat.
Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated) going into an earnings announcement especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. Quote
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some biotech stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
Celgene Corporation is scheduled to release its first quarter 2018 results on May 4. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Adverum Biotechnologies, Inc. (ADVM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.9% and currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release first-quarter results on May 8.
Emergent Biosolutions Inc. (EBS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +61.8% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 3.
Wall Street’s Next Amazon
Zacks EVP Kevin Matras believes this familiar stock has only just begun its climb to become one of the greatest investments of all time. It’s a once-in-a-generation opportunity to invest in pure genius.
Click for details >>