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Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) Q1 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter results on May 8 after market close.

Shares of the company have outperformed the industry so far this year. The stock has rallied 14.6% against the industry’s 2.7% decrease.

 

Jazz has been showcasing a disappointing earnings history of late. The company surpassed estimates only once in the last four quarters, missing the same in the other three with an average beat of 0.79%. Last quarter, the company delivered a negative surprise of 1.01%.

Let’s see, how things have shaped up for this last completed quarter:

Factors at Play

On the first-quarter conference call, investors will be attentive toward management’s comments regarding Xyrem’s performance, which is Jazz’s lead product for cataplexy and excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS). Also, they will be keen to know about the company’s pipeline progress. Its business development plans are also expected to draw notice.

Xyrem has witnessed lower-than-expected growth in the second half of 2017 due to negative impact of payer mix and operational changes leading to delayed prescription fulfillment. However, at fourth-quarter conference, management had increased its sales outlook for Xyrem as it anticipates a low to mid-single-digit volume expansion for the drug in 2018. It remains to be seen if this is reflected in Xyrem’s sales performance in the to be reported quarter. Notably, Jazz is striving to expand Xyrem’s label. The company reported positive top-line data from a phase III study on children and adolescents with EDS in mid-2017. Last week, the company submitted a regulatory application for the drug to the FDA for the given indication.

The company’s another drug, Defitelio (veno-occlusive disease), was launched in the United States in early April 2016. Though the drug's performance was soft during the first half of 2017, it showed some improvement in the fourth quarter, a trend which we expect to continue in 2018.

However, Jazz has been facing challenges in building sufficient inventory levels for another product called Erwinaze due to constrained manufacturing capacity. Also, there might have been supply disruptions in certain markets for the company in the last completed quarter including the United States and beyond.  

Noticeably, last reported quarter, the company recorded impressive sales from Vyxeos, launched in August 2017 in the U.S. market for treating adults with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The drug is expected to generate significant revenues in the to-be-reported quarter as well, given the company’s aggressive commercialization efforts for the same.

Also, Jazz’s lead pipeline candidate, JZP-110, complements its existing sleep disorder portfolio. It has been developed for the treatment of EDS. In March 2018, Jazz announced that the FDA accepted the company's regulatory application for JZP-110 with respect to the given indication. A response from the FDA is awaited on Dec 20, 2018.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Jazz is likely to beat estimates this earnings season. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a solid Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. But that is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Jazz has an Earnings ESP of -1.02%, representing the percentage difference between the Most Accurate estimate of $2.74 and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.76. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Jazz has a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company needs a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings surprise. Hence, this combination leaves surprise prediction inconclusive.

We caution against Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) going into an earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

 

Stocks to Consider

Some health care stocks with the right combination of elements to surpass estimates this time around are as follows:

Emergent Biosolutions Inc. (EBS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +61.80% and a Zacks Rank of 3.  The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Celgene Corporation has an Earnings ESP of +0.63% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on May 4.

Adverum Biotechnologies, Inc. (ADVM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.90% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player. The company is expected to release first-quarter results on May 8.

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