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Economic Data Deluge

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A slew of new economic data has hit the tape ahead of Wednesday’s opening bell, in addition to big names in the Retail sector continuing to report quarterly earnings results. Retail Sales, Productivity and Unit Labor Costs along with the latest Empire State Index join earnings results from Macy’s (M - Free Report) , among others, this morning.

Retail Sales for July were much better than expected, up 0.5% from the estimated +0.1%. We see resilience here when we strip out auto sales and auto and gas purchases, both +0.6% for last month. These figures are tempered a bit by a downward revision to June Retail Sales — +0.2% from the +0.5% initially reported.

Productivity in Q2 also outperformed expectations, reporting +2.9%, a half-point higher than the 2.4% and far above the slightly downwardly revised Q1 read of +0.3%. Unit Labor Costs, on the other hand, fell more precipitously than expected: -0.9% from the consensus estimate of -0.1%. These are all preliminary numbers, we should keep in mind, and subject to notable revisions.

This month’s Empire State Index also came in hotter than anticipated at +25.6, above the 22.6 from July. Taken together, these latest economic reads only wander from the overall narrative in that productivity looks to finally be gaining some meaningful traction. About one of the only “disappointments” we’ve seen in this years-long economic boom in the U.S. is that productivity numbers have lagged in comparison to employment figures of late. Productivity is an essential element of any economy, of course, and what’s encouraging about seeing month-over-month gains in this respect are that they are non-inflationary positives.

Big-box retail giant Macy’s outperformed earnings expectations in its fiscal Q2, putting up 59 cents per share, a full dime ahead of the Zacks consensus. This was strengthened by robust comps compared to analyst estimates. Revenues, however, were slightly beneath consensus at $5.57 billion for the quarter. This, plus the fact that Macy’s stock is up over 60% since the beginning of this year, may explain how shares have sold off roughly 5% ahead of today’s market open. For more on M’s earnings, click here.


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