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Trump Says Stocks Will Crash If He's Impeached: Is He Right?

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This Tuesday, Michael Cohen, President Donald Trump’s former personal lawyer, pleaded guilty to eight criminal charges, including campaign-finance violations.

Cohen said that under Trump’s direction, he paid money to an adult-film actress and a former Playboy model to silence them on their affairs with Trump. On the same day, a federal jury convicted former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort on tax and bank fraud charges.

 Such events have led to discussions of Trump’s impeachment, and during an interview on the Fox News program “Fox & Friends” on Thursday, Trump said that he believes the stock market will crash if he were to be impeached.

But is that true? Well, so far, the talks of Trump’s impeachment haven’t affected the stock market. In fact, many predict even if he does get impeached, it won’t affect stocks that much. There are a couple explanations behind this prediction.

First, the current bull market—the longest one in history—isn’t solely the result of Trump. Sure, his efforts at expansion with pro-growth policies and tax reform did help.

But another big reason behind the current market is solid corporate earnings and a strong dollar, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of market analytics firm DataTrek Research, said MarketWatch.

So, unless the market believes that it is operating well because of Trump, the impeachment won’t affect it much.

According to data from political prediction market PredictIt.Org, the possibility of Trump being impeached has been rising. Despite that, GDP growth and a low unemployment rate have been contributing greatly to the robust economy at hand right now. Considering this, investors shouldn’t be too weary, as the market has the economy on its back.

Lastly, another big uncertain variable for the markets is the prospects of the trade war. So far, although stocks have been affected slightly, the impact isn’t that disastrous. As people expect the trade war to cool down towards fall, especially considering the upcoming trade talks between China and the U.S, the market seems to be healthy for now.

Of course, this political mayhem in the White House is nothing to be overlooked. It can have rippling effects in all aspects. However, for now, the market seems to be safe from these issues and will likely not “crash” as Trump himself claimed it would.

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