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Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Down 3.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 3.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Keurig Dr Pepper due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts. <p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Keurig Dr Pepper Reports KGM &amp; DPS Q2 Earnings &amp; Sales</strong><br /><br />Keurig Dr Pepper reported results individually for Dr Pepper Snapple Group (&ldquo;DPS&rdquo;) and Keurig Green Mountain (&ldquo;KGM&rdquo;) for the period ended Jun 30, 2018, as the merger of the two companies was completed after the end of the second quarter. The company stated that the integration of the combined company is well in progress, as clear from the recent appointment of the new leadership team.<br /><br />The company will report the combined results of KGM and DPS, starting in the third quarter of 2018. Further, the management reiterated the 2018 outlook for the combined company. It also expects to deliver on the long-term value creation guidelines provided in the Investor Day on Mar 20, 2018.<br /><br /><strong>Quarterly Highlights</strong><br /><br /><strong><em>DPS Second-Quarter 2018 Results</em></strong><br /><br />Adjusted earnings per share of $1.30 improved 4% year over year and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 30 cents. Net sales of $1,886 million rose 5% from the year-ago quarter but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,846 million. Sales growth mainly stemmed from 3% increase due to favorable mix and 2% rise in volume, which included increased contract manufacturing. Modest pricing gains also aided sales while unfavorable currency translations were detrimental.<br /><br />Top-line gains in the reported quarter were also attributed to the innovations for Canada Dry and persistent strength in the Bai brand as well as the robust performance of Mott&#39;s juices and several Allied Brands.<br /><br />Adjusted operating income dipped 6.4% year over year to $363 million, driven by higher commodity costs &mdash; particularly for plastics, aluminum and apples; increased logistics expenses; and higher planned marketing investments, as well as administrative expenses, mainly in the Packaged Beverage segment. These higher costs were not fully offset by pricing actions and productivity benefits.<br /><br /><em><strong>KGM Second-Quarter 2018 Results</strong></em><br /><br />KGM&rsquo;s net sales of $949 million were almost flat with the prior-year quarter. Gains from a 3.2% increase in volume/mix and 0.5% favorable currency effects were mostly compensated by a moderation in strategic pricing actions, which was initiated in 2016.<br /><br />Volume increase in the reported quarter was mainly driven by high-single-digit pod volume growth, stemming from increased household penetration of the Keurig single-serve system in the United States. However, a decline in net price realization, owing to strategic pricing actions and soft brewer sales as a result of the timing of brewer innovation, primarily hurt top-line growth.<br /><br />Adjusted operating income rose 10.8% to $288 million while adjusted operating margin expanded 290 basis points (bps) to 30.3%. The increase was backed by significant productivity savings gains and stringent management of SG&amp;A overhead costs, partly negated by higher planned advertising investments.<br /><br />Further, KGM&rsquo;s strong cash flow generation and robust operating performance led to considerably lower net debt. The company cleared $481 million in debt in the second quarter compared with the net debt as of Dec 31, 2017. Further, the company has reduced term loans and revolving credit facility by nearly $1.1 billion since the end of the second quarter of 2017, in sync with its strategy of rapid deleveraging.<br /><br /><strong>Combined Company (KDP - Free Report) Outlook</strong><br /><br />The company has reiterated the combined company outlook for 2018 and the longer term, which was provided in its Investor Day on Mar 20, 2018.<br /><br />For 2018, Keurig Dr Pepper anticipates adjusted earnings per share of $1.02-$1.07, after the impact of preliminary Purchase Price Accounting adjustments. Further, the company expects sales to grow 1-2% in 2018.<br /><br />For the long term, the company expects to generate deal synergies of nearly $600 million between 2019 and 2021, with about $200 million savings anticipated every year. These synergies, combined with strong margin expansion at Keurig Green Mountain and growth at historic levels for DPS, are likely to result in the combined company EPS growth rate of 15-17% between now and 2021.<br /><br />Additionally, the company expects significant cash flow generation and rapid deleveraging, targeting a leverage ratio of less than 3.0 in two to three years.</p>

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted -6.03% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Keurig Dr Pepper has an average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Keurig Dr Pepper has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.




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