In this Global Week Ahead, the U.S. midterm election and the Fed’s November statement-only report take center stage.

Heedless of where you invest on the globe, this divisive and historic U.S. election, and the future path of risk-free bond rates in the United States, matters to securities markets.

Lurking behind these two marquee events, the U.S. Q3 large-cap earnings season winds down this week. Thus far, 74% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, and 78% of those firms have surpassed estimates. If earnings growth holds at +24.9%, it marks the 2nd-highest growth rate seen since Q3-2010.

More than 70 companies in the S&P 500 report quarterly financial results.

The week’s earnings include: Marriott International, Qualcomm and Walt Disney. SoftBank, Occidental Petroleum, Siemens, Activision Blizzard, BMW, Toyota, Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca and Brazilian oil firm Petrobras are also set to report earnings.

To tie all of this together, I listed the five big Reuters in London world market themes, in order of importance to equities.

(1) U.S. Midterm Elections

If the last five U.S. midterm elections are anything to go by, investors should be long U.S. stocks on Tuesday to make the most of a knee-jerk upwards move, no matter what the outcome. Equities have risen the day after each of the past five midterms.

During President Obama’s second term in November 2014, stocks rose 0.6 percent when Republicans made broad gains and took control of the Senate. Energy stocks got a particular boost on hopes of approvals for pipelines. And Obama’s first-term midterm elections also saw stocks grind higher after Republicans took control of the House.

Going back to 2006 during President George W Bush’s second term, stocks nudged 0.2 percent up when Democrats took control of the house; while in 2002 stocks rose 0.9 percent.

A Republican win this time around, that which allows them to retain total control of Congress, could boost stocks as it would increase the chances of more tax reform and further de-regulation.

Still, a Democratic takeover of the House may not significantly shake the market if it has effectively been priced in — offering the prospect of gridlock and stability in policy.

(2) What About China’s Currency Moves?

Is there light at the end of the trade war tunnel?

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping both seemed optimistic about resolving their bitter trade dispute after Thursday’s phone discussion and ahead of a high-stakes meeting at the end of November in Argentina.

Hopes for a possible deal propelled the yuan away from the psychological threshold of 7 to the dollar, for now. The currency had been under pressure amid worries over slowing growth in the world’s second largest economy.

And despite a raft of stimulus measures announced by Beijing having already brightened investors’ mood, the jury is still out as to whether the yuan could crash through that key level, according to a Reuters poll.

If it does, consensus predicts the move to be gradual unless economic conditions in China deteriorate further. Trade data out this week will surely be scoured for clues on that.

(3) Give European Equities a Second Look

As the European earnings season continues to rumble on, analysts are scratching their heads as to what exactly triggered a sharp selloff across global equity markets last month, which seems to have hit price performance but left earnings expectations largely intact.

Some say investors were just pricing in the fact U.S. stocks aren’t going to be able to provide 20 percent earnings growth every quarter — and taking prices down from their exuberant record high levels.

If they’re beginning to look for alternatives to the United States that still have some earnings improvement to deliver, Europe is starting to look viable. Analysts expect quarterly year-on-year earnings growth in Europe to edge above those in the U.S. in 2019.

Yet in the short-term, investors still have a few hurdles to jump, most notably Italian banks’ earnings this week which could deepen the gloom around lenders’ ability to withstand the steep sell-off in government bonds.

(4) The U.K. Tries to Get Brexit Sorted

Sterling’s rally last week was the second-biggest of the year.

Fueled by reports that the United Kingdom and the European Union have made progress on a deal to give London basic access to EU markets after Brexit and a rally in global stocks, traders lost no time in snapping up the heavily shorted currency.

But some warn that markets may be getting overly excited. While expectations of a deal at a summit on Nov. 21 have grown, domestic political challenges still abound and market indicators reflect those concerns.

Morgan Stanley strategists say market sentiment is extremely bearish on sterling, with gauges indicating traders are paying more premiums to buy currency options to brace for a rocky ride ahead. And expectations are that that roller coaster ride may last for some time with implied volatility curve spreads between 1-year and 1-month options near their flattest levels this year.

(5) Talking Turkey

The strong relief rally that has lifted Turkey’s markets over the last month will face a crucial test on Monday when national inflation figures are released.

Signs are that the data won’t make for very pleasant reading. Retail price numbers from Istanbul released on Thursday showed a 3.5 percent month-on-month surge and the city is home to a fifth of Turkey’s population, so it tends to be a good guide for national inflation.

Economists now expect Monday’s figure to come in at around 26 percent and the peak might still be another month or two away. So having been charging back into Turkey in recent weeks, investors might begin to remember why they left in the first place.

Top Zacks Rank Stocks—

(A) Intel (INTC Quick QuoteINTC - Free Report) : This is a $220B market-cap stock, and the leader of the chip stocks. Yes. The stock is back to a Zacks #1 (STRONG BUY) rank. The Value score is A and the Growth Score is B.

Can the chip stocks get it going after the midterms?

(B) Sony : This is a $67B market-cap Japanese tech stock. The latest PMIs for this country are good. The Value Score is A and the Growth scores is C.

(C) Twitter : Surprise, surprise. This U.S.-based social media stock is on our Zacks #1 Rank list this week. President Trump loves this service. The midterms this week will show if it has delivered for him. The market cap is $26B and the Value Score is F.

Key Global Macro—

The major events are Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections and Thursday’s Fed decision with a statement-only communication. Those will be the main — and pretty much only — developments of note next week.

In economic data, the U.S. PMI services index and ISM non-manufacturing index are due Monday, followed by the latest update on job openings on Tuesday.

Investors will also be looking out for U.S. jobless claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan’s latest report consumer sentiment on Friday.

On Monday, India’s composite PMI comes out. The prior was 51.6.

For a comparison, the CIPS/Markit Services PMI for the U.K. comes out. The prior is 53.9. With Brexit in play, this PMI takes on more significance than usual.

The U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index comes out. The prior was 61.6. The call is for 58.0. That’s much stronger than the U.K.

On Tuesday, Japan’s composite PMI comes out. The prior was 50.7, similar to India.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) issues a decision on its overnight rate. It should stay at 1.5%.

Germany’s composite PMI comes out. It has been 52.7.

Markit’s Composite PMI for Brazil comes out. It should be moving from 47.3 to 48.7. That’s still not strong enough to get into expansion territory.

On Wednesday, the Eurozone’s retail sales comes out. It has been tracking at +1.8% y/y. That sounds anemic.

On Thursday, U.S. initial claims should stay low at 214K.

Mexico’s CPI comes out. It should fall from 5.02% y/y to 4.92% y/y.

The FOMC should keep its Fed Funds rate at 2.25%.

On Friday, U.K. GDP growth gets an update. Look for +0.4% q/q.

The Fed’s Williams and Harker speak.