With lots of red on traders’ screens, showing them an empty hand for suffering through the many macro risks cast across an entire year, we enter a mid-November trading week without much bonhomie.

Can the global stock markets finally find something to cheer about? It has been a sobering year of poverty… in terms of returns.

Can some country index prevail, somewhere? We shall see.

Below are five big underlying macro themes. These are the most likely to dominate the thinking of investors and traders alike in the Global Week Ahead.

(1) Here Comes Thanksgiving, Amid Hopes for a New Year

As 2018 inches toward its close, many investors, such as those sitting on 16-percent losses on emerging market stocks, will be looking forward to turning the page on the year.

Ditto for those who bought Italian bonds and found themselves 12 percent in the red. Buyers of U.S. equities, on the other hand, with 6 percent-plus returns, will have something to be grateful for at Thanksgiving.

As for 2019, where exactly should the canny fund manager go? Some clarity may emerge in coming days as investors start to detail investment bets for the year ahead, including at Reuters’ annual asset allocation summit which runs all week in London, New York and Singapore. More than 30 hedge fund managers, stock and bond investors, short sellers and macroeconomists managing tens of trillions of dollars will lay out their vision for 2019.

We hasten to add that the events of 2018 wrong-footed some summit attendees from last year, not least on emerging markets and Italy. Others correctly called a Turkish crisis and stuck to holding U.S. tech, despite pricey valuations.

The summit coincides with a tricky investment landscape — will equities remain the go-to sector as the sugar-rush of President Trump’s $1.5 trillion stimulus starts to wear off? Will European growth and profits buck up? Tech — this year’s “most crowded” trade — shows signs of exhaustion.

As for China, that’s anyone’s guess.

(2) What Does the U.S. President Do After Midterms?

It’s become pretty much evident, stateside, that the script has been torn up on all things White House-related.

Midterm elections, at least, delivered the expected outcome — and despite Trump’s proclivity to credit Republican policies for the equity boom, investors seem to have cheered Democrats’ winning the U.S. House of Representatives. A sign maybe that more stimulus is not necessarily what markets want for an economy growing at 3.5 percent — above the 2 percent rate considered its trend level.

Unsurprisingly, the Fed is keeping a steady course for a December rate rise. Another two moves are likely next year. But could that become three? Data on Wednesday may show. October inflation is expected at 2.4 percent (2.3 percent in September) but labor markets are tightening — average hourly wage inflation of 3.1 percent is the highest since 2009; some sectors report 5-10 percent wage growth.

The Fed question brings up the other issue: what does Trump do next? Deprived of a midterm win, starting his re-election bid and irked by the dollar’s rise, he might ramp up his attacks on Fed policy. Also, expect rhetoric on migration. And, of course, on trade — where China can safely expect to be in line for more flak.

(3) Does a China Growth Slowdown Bite?

Speaking of China, Trump’s trade tantrums and Beijing’s own credit clampdown are clearly cooling growth there.

Probably more than Chinese authorities had expected. Factory inflation slowed in October for the fourth month, and the car market — the world’s largest — may be heading for an annual contraction, its first since at least 1990. Beijing therefore looks certain to unveil some stimulus, weakening the yuan further — and provoking even more ire from Trump.

Retail sales and industrial data ahead may show if existing measures have had any impact. However, each bout of weak data raises more stimulus exceptions, keeping the pressure on the yuan. The currency just had its worst week since July and is down 6.5 percent year-to-date. Beijing will be hoping to plot some kind of middle course to take pressure off President Xi Jinping when he comes face-to-face with Trump at a G20 summit later in November.

(4) Italy Must Submit a Budget to the EU This Week

Italy has until Tuesday to submit a new draft budget to Brussels.

EU rules require it to revise its 2019 structural deficit so that it falls by 0.6 percent of GDP versus this year, rather than rise by 0.8 percent as planned now.

But the coalition in Rome, having won power on back of some generous election promises, is digging in its heels. Expectations of a collision with the EU is stressing its bond and stock markets, with Italy’s 10-year bond yield premium over Germany staying stubbornly near the 300 basis-point mark that indicates financial strain.

But there’s another layer of worry for markets — signs of tension within the coalition itself. A recent confidence vote in the government passed easily, but differences on policy are raising the prospect of fresh elections.

So far, markets and politicians have taken heart from the S&P’s recent decision not to downgrade Italy’s credit rating.

Talk of a fresh round of cheap ECB bank loans has helped too. Both factors have helped the Italy-Germany yield gap to hold below 300 bps. The question now is how long can that last in the face of the budget standoff?

(5) What Happens to the U.K. Pound?

Brexit is nearing and the pound is getting twitchy.

A mere "thumbs up" flashed by Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab at a BBC reporter after a cabinet meeting on Tuesday was enough to send sterling to that day's high of nearly $1.31.

Growing expectations of a divorce deal by end-November between Britain and the EU have lifted sterling for two straight weeks. And because of a large number of short sterling positions held in options markets, the currency has tended to rise more sharply on signs of a breakthrough than it falls when talks reach impasse.

But there is still fear there’s not enough progress on key sticking points — especially the Irish border — to hold an emergency EU summit later in November to sign a deal. And any mooted deal is sure to face opposition in parliament and within Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative party.

One sign of nerves is that sterling-dollar risk-reversals, a ratio of puts to calls on the currency and a barometer of investor bearishness are near two-year highs. So at the upcoming cabinet meeting, May will be hoping her ministers give the nod — or a thumbs-up — to her Brexit negotiating position.

Top Zacks Stocks—

Tesla (TSLA Quick QuoteTSLA - Free Report) : Believe it or not, the electric car-maker is a Zacks #1 Rank. Shares price at $350. These shares have range-traded for a number of months. I wouldn’t expect any change on that. The Zacks up-ranking just reflects the latest positive profit report from the recent quarter.

CSX Rail (CSX Quick QuoteCSX - Free Report) : Yes. U.S. rails are staying hot in earnings fundamental terms. This is a $60B market cap stock at a share price of $70. But the Zacks Value score is poor at D. Even after the October sell-off, you might want to watch and wait for a better entry point.

Enterprise Product Partners LP (EPD Quick QuoteEPD - Free Report) : This is a solid Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) player, tied to a $58B market cap stock. And the stock is a 6.3% annual dividend payer, in the Energy space. With the Saudi production cut in play on Monday, keep an eye on stocks like this. It has a nice Zacks VGM score of B, along with our #1 Rank.

Key Global Macro—

The effects of tariffs on the average U.S. consumer’s pocketbook should be one of the coming week’s main point of emphasis.

Are consumers paying a stiffer price for trade wars that is driving up inflation, and are tariffs beginning to impact their spending patterns?

On Wednesday, the first glimpse at tariff effects will arrive with CPI for October on Wednesday. The headline U.S. CPI probably rose by about one-tenth to +2.4% y/y with a +0.2% m/m gain and CPI ex-food and energy probably also climbed by a tenth to +2.3% y/y with a 0.3% m/m rise offset somewhat by softer year-ago base effects.

On Thursday, a Bank of Mexico rate decision hits the tape. No rate change is the call there.

On Monday, ANTAD same store sales in Mexico (the retail sales proxy there) should be +3.5% y/y, down from a prior +6.1% y/y figure.

On Tuesday, OPEC oil market monthly report comes out, hot on the heels of a Saudi production cut announcement.
Germany’s HICP inflation rate looks to come in a little hot, at +2.4% y/y. We also get the German ZEW indexes today.

On Wednesday, Germany’s real GDP growth rate looks to come in at +2.0% y/y.

The U.K.’s CPI looks a little hot too, at +2.4% y/y.

Eurozone real GDP growth looks to come in around +1.7% y/y. That’s relatively weak, with respect to prior years.

On Thursday, Australia’s unemployment rate comes out. It has been a nice 5.0%.

Brazil’s proxy GDP growth rate looks to fall to +1.1% y/y from +2.5% y/y.

U.S. weekly initial claims should stay low, at around 214K.

On Friday, the Eurozone measure of consumer inflation (HICP) comes out. The core measure should be relatively weak at +1.1% y/y.

U.S. capacity utilization rates come out. Look for 77.9%, in line with the prior 78.1%.