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Why Is Hawaiian Holdings (HA) Up 18.3% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Hawaiian Holdings (HA - Free Report) . Shares have added about 18.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Hawaiian Holdings due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Hawaiian Holdings’ Q3 Earnings Beat, Revenues Miss

Hawaiian Holdings’ third-quarter 2018 earnings (excluding 7 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.91 per share outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.73. However, quarterly revenues of $759.1 million fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $763.6 million. Revenues increased 6% on a year-over-year basis, courtesy of the new accounting standards adopted on Jan 1, 2018. Passenger revenues, which accounted for bulk (91.8%) of the top line, increased 4.3%. Balance came from other sources.

Operating revenue per available seat mile in the reported quarter decreased 2% year over year. The metric is projected to be between down 2.5% and up 0.5% year over year in the final quarter of 2018.

Capacity is projected to grow between 4.5% and 6.5% in the fourth quarter. The metric is expected to increase in the band of 5.5-7.5% for 2018. CASM, excluding fuel, is projected between down 2% and up 1% year over year for the fourth quarter. Fuel cost per gallon (economic) is anticipated to be in the band of $2.20-$2.30 in the fourth quarter. The metric is envisioned in the $2.05-$2.15 band for 2018.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted -14.08% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Hawaiian Holdings has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Hawaiian Holdings has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.




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