Markets jumped to start the Global Week Ahead. That strong buying activity reflected the relief that a U.S.-China trade war truce concluded over the weekend.

Also hitting the tape convincingly last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke about Fed Funds interest rates as being ‘near’ the neutral rate. This week will see some follow through. He addresses the U.S. Congress on Wednesday.

On their 2018 calendar, he and the FOMC have one more gathering. The FOMC meet one last time on December 19^th. That likely leads to a final 25 bps rate hike.

How quickly a year can fly!

On Friday, the biggest market moving data out this week will be the November nonfarm payroll report.

To conclude, I reproduced the five big Reuters in London world market themes for the Global Week Ahead. These likely dominate the thinking of investors and traders alike.

(1) Powell Speaks to Congress on Wednesday, Payrolls Hit Friday

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sent the stock market soaring when he appeared to signal that a three-year long rate-hike cycle may be nearing a peak. It could be that Powell’s comments were misread by jittery markets; if so, they have another chance on hear him on Dec. 5 when he testifies to the congressional Joint Economic Committee.

Powell will speak two days before November employment data emerges. His most recent speech made little specific reference to this. So the report will be key, given unemployment is at a 49-year low and employers are boosting pay.

Markets will be particularly attuned to wages, which logged their largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years in October. If that 3.1 percent gain in average hourly earnings is repeated, it will look like enough of an inflation whiff for the Fed to keep the rake hike path intact at its Dec. 18-19 meeting.

(2) The U.S.-China Trade War Ceasefire

With Chinese factory activity now at the slowest in more than two years, President Trump’s agreement to hold off with further tariff increases on Chinese imports is good news for Beijing. Given Trump’s hard-nosed trade stance and the long odds of President Xi Jinping caving in to American demands on opening up China’s economy, it is unclear if the ceasefire will morph into a peace deal. But it is nevertheless welcome.

Since the trade war began in March, Chinese stocks and the economy have felt the pain. But the G20 deal has pushed yuan to the highest since February 2016 and stocks are 2.5 percent higher. That may allow Beijing to delay wheeling out more stimulus; many had expected that after loosening bank reserve ratios, authorities could resort to an interest rate cut for the first time in three years.

(3) European Automakers at the White House This Week

Now that the G20 tango in Argentina is over, Germany auto firms are waiting their turn to waltz in Washington: top executives from Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler will be in the White House this week with hopes they can head off additional tariffs on their cars.

Their trip follows threats from Trump to slap more taxes on vehicles assembled in the EU. Combined with the effect of China’s economic slowdown, this will spell bad news for Europe’s carmakers, whose earnings have already been hit by tighter regulations.

What’s more, a 25-percent auto tariff could also reduce 2019 economic growth in the Eurozone by 40 basis points to 1.2-1.3 percent, Barclays calculates.

Shares in Europe’s auto sector have bounced after the weekend trade ceasefire between Trump and Xi, but they are still down more than 20 percent this year. A negative outcome in Washington will dash hopes that the rebound can last.

(4) Will There Be a Second Brexit Vote?

It started with a vote. Now, there is a chance that another vote could stop Brexit in its tracks.

The odds look stacked against British Prime Minister Theresa May getting parliament’s nod on Dec. 11 for her draft Brexit agreement; members of her own Conservative Party, the opposition and the Northern Irish party which props up May’s minority government all oppose it.

Some Britons hope a rejection by parliament will open the door to another Brexit referendum in order to head off the risk of crashing out without a deal. Signs are public support has risen to reverse the June 2016 Brexit vote, and the opposition Labour Party’s finance spokesman has backed a second referendum.

What’s more, on Dec. 4, the European Court of Justice’s advocate-general will give his opinion on whether Britain can revoke its notice to withdraw from the EU without agreement of the other 27 states. The Scottish politicians behind the ECJ case hope a ruling in their favor will pave the way for another referendum.

How will markets react? Anyone’s guess. If a “no” from parliament is interpreted as a slide towards no-deal, the pound may tumble. But if a second referendum — and a remain outcome — becomes a possibility, the opposite is likely.

(5) Wither Oil Prices?

Crude oil futures have just endured their worst month for more than 10 years, plunging more than 20 percent in November. That follows losses of around 10 percent in October. With world growth slowing, supply is outstripping demand. So when the OPEC producers’ club meets in Vienna on Dec. 6-7, the stakes could not be higher.

With WTI dipping below $50 a barrel and Brent now below $60, one would think OPEC is nailed on to cut production and get prices rising again. But it is not quite so simple.

For one, President Trump won’t be happy. After repeatedly called for lower oil prices he has gotten his wish, so any action to raise them could provoke a political reaction from the White House.

Second, Saudi Arabia’s desire and ability to cut production significantly is limited because of its budgetary needs and also because higher oil prices raise competition from U.S. shale. And other OPEC and non-OPEC countries are still lukewarm to the idea of cutting production. Watch this space.

Top Zacks Stocks--

Dell : This stock is trading at $105 and has a market cap of $85 billion now. Can the Tech sector get it back together? The Zacks VGM score here is A.

Qualcomm (QCOM Quick QuoteQCOM - Free Report) : This is a wireless equipment bellwether and it is on our #1 Rank Strong Buy this week too. The 5G rollout is getting covering analysts exited. But the Zacks VGM score is F. Is all that good news priced in?

Tesla (TSLA Quick QuoteTSLA - Free Report) : Yes folks, Telsa is on our Zacks #1 Rank Strong Buy list this week. A market cap of $60 billion still looks too high to this economist. The Zacks VGM score is indeed an F.

Key Global Macro Data—

On Monday, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI ticked up to 50.2 in November from 50.1 in October.

India’s manufacturing PMI came out at 54.0, beating the prior month’s 53.1. So, neither China nor India are actually wilting under pressure from Trump’s 10% tariffs.

There are a host of other manufacturing PMIs out today, too.

On Tuesday, Australia’s Reserve Bank (the RBA) comes out with a rate decision. The 1.5% rate is supposed to stick around.

There is an EU Finance Ministers meeting in Brussels.

The BoE’s Carney speaks in Parliament.

On Wednesday, a BoE Financial Stability Report hits the tape. This is likely about the effects of Brexit.

Germany’s composite PMI gets updated. It has been tracking at 52.2.

The U.S. ADP payroll survey hits the tape. 227K was the last report.

The Bank of Canada should stay pat at 1.75%.

The Fed’s Powell testifies on the Economic Outlook before a Joint Congressional Committee.

The Fed releases it Beige Book.

On Thursday, Greece’s unemployment rate is down to 18.9%. We get a new look.

U.S. initial claims look good at 234K.

On Friday, the U.S. nonfarm payroll report for November lands. Look for something near the last month’s +246K.

The U.S. household unemployment rate should be staying at 3.7%.