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Alaska Air November Load Factor Down, Q4 RASM View Bullish

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Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK - Free Report) reported traffic results for November. Traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles (RPMs), inched up 1% to 4.44 billion.

On a year-over-year basis, consolidated capacity (or available seat miles/ASMs) expanded 1.2% to 5.28 billion. However, load factor or percentage of seats filled by passengers contracted 10 basis points to 84.1% as capacity expansion outpaced traffic growth.

In the first 11 months of 2018, the carrier generated RPMs of 50.18 billion (up 4.9% year over year) and ASMs of 59.87 billion (up 5.8% year over year). Load factor was pegged at 83.8% compared with 84.5% a year ago.


Q4 RASM View Tweaked

The carrier now anticipates fourth-quarter revenue per available seat mile in the range of 12.70-12.80 cents compared with the previous guidance of 12.60-12.80 cents. The revised estimate represents a year-over-year change of 4-5%.

This upbeat unit revenue forecast perhaps lifted investors’ hopes. Consequently, the stock gained 1.6% at the close of business on Dec 14.

However, the company now anticipates fourth-quarter fuel costs per gallon to be $2.36 compared with $2.33 expected earlier.

Zacks Rank & Key Picks

Alaska Air carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Some better-ranked stocks in the same space are Air France-KLM SA (AFLYY - Free Report) , International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (ICAGY - Free Report) and Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE - Free Report) , each flaunting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Shares of Air France-KLM and Spirit have rallied more than 26% and 49%, respectively, in the past six months. Meanwhile, the International Consolidated Airlines stock has an impressive earnings history, having trumped the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four reported quarters, the average beat being 92.9%.

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