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MetLife (MET) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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MetLife, Inc. (MET - Free Report) is set to release its first-quarter 2019 earnings on May 1, 2019.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its earnings per share is pegged at $1.30 (down 44% year over year) on revenues of $16.23 billion (up 7.18%).

Let’s see the factors affecting Q1 results

Favorable underwriting and investment margins, solid volume growth, as well as lower taxes will aid operating earnings in Retirement and Income Solutions segment.

Group Benefits business is likely to gain from solid volume growth and lower taxes, which should be offset by less favorable underwriting, higher expenses and lower investment margins.

Better expense margins, favorable underwriting, and volume growth will drive revenues from Latin America business.

Earnings from EMEA region is likely to be affected by less favorable underwriting and higher taxes.

The company anticipates weaker first-quarter private equity returns in its alternative investment portfolio, given fourth quarter marketing conditions and the one quarter reporting a lag.

To the contrary, unit cost initiative has already improved MetLife's direct expense ratio.

Share repurchases made by the company in the to-be-reported quarter will add to its bottom line.

Earnings Surprise History

The company boasts an attractive earnings surprise history. It beat estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average positive surprise of 10.4%. This is depicted in the chart below:

Here is what the quantitative model predicts:

Our proven model does not conclusively show that MetLife is likely to beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. But that is not the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: MetLife has an Earning ESP of -0.11%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter

Zacks Rank: MetLife carries a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company needs to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings surprise. Therefore, this combination leaves surprise prediction inconclusive.

Stocks Worth Considering

Some stocks from the insurance industry with the perfect mix of elements to outshine estimates this time around are as follows:

The Allstate Corporation (ALL - Free Report) is set to report first-quarter earnings on May 1. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.70% and a Zacks Rank #3.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Everest Re Group, Ltd. (RE - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.27% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on May 6.

RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.29% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is slated to announce first-quarter earnings on May 7.

Zacks' Top 10 Stocks for 2019

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