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O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Down 3.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 3.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is O'Reilly Automotive due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

O'Reilly Earnings & Revenues Lag Estimates in Q1

O’Reilly’s adjusted earnings per share were $4.05 in first-quarter 2019, marking 12% rise from $3.61 in the prior-year quarter. However, the figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.06.

During the reported quarter, net income improved 5% to $321 million (13.3% of sales) from $305 million (13.4% of sales) recorded in the year-ago period.

The company’s quarterly revenues rose 6% year over year to $2.41 billion, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.44 billion. O’Reilly’s comparable store sales increased 3.2% from 3.4% recorded in the prior-year quarter.

Gross profit went up 6% to $1.28 billion (or 53.1% of sales) from $1.2 billion (or 52.6% of sales) reported in the year-ago quarter. Selling, general and administrative expenses rose 7% year over year to $835 million (34.6% of sales) from $778 million (34.1% of sales) in first-quarter 2018. Operating income increased 5% to $445 million (or 18.5% of sales) from $423 million (or 18.5% of sales) reported a year ago.

Financial Position

O’Reilly reported cash and cash equivalents of $56.7 million at the end of the first quarter, up from $38.5 million at the end of the year-ago period. Its long-term debt increased to $3.5 billion as of Mar 31, 2019, from $3.2 billion as of Mar 31, 2018.

At the end of the first quarter, O’Reilly generated $440.6 million in cash from operating activities compared with $432 million recorded in the same period of 2018. During the period, capital expenditure was $153 million compared with $115 million in the year-ago period. Further, free cash flow declined to $279.2 million from $311 million witnessed in the last year.

Store Information

O’Reilly opened 64 stores in first-quarter 2019. The total store count was 5,306 as of Mar 31, 2019, compared with 5,097 in the last year. Sales per weighted-average store increased to $452,000 from $447,000 in the prior-year quarter.

Share Repurchases

During the reported quarter, O’Reilly repurchased 0.9 million shares for $322 million, reflecting average price of $347.09 per share. From the end of the first quarter to the date of the earnings release, the company did not repurchase any additional shares.

Outlook

For second-quarter 2019, O’Reilly projects earnings of $4.55-$4.65 per share. Further, the company expects 3-5% rise in consolidated comparable store sales.

For 2019, O’Reilly reiterated total revenues projection of $10-$10.3 billion and earnings per share of $17.37-$17.47.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

Currently, O'Reilly Automotive has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, O'Reilly Automotive has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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