Acorda Therapeutics, Inc. (ACOR - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2019 results on Aug 1, after the market closes.
Acorda has an excellent earnings surprise history, surpassing expectations in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 79.32%. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a positive surprise of 42.27%.
Shares of Acorda have plunged 56.2% so far this year against the industry’s rise of 0.3%.
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Factors to Consider
Last December, the FDA approved Acorda’s Parkinson's disease (PD) drug Inbrija. Following this nod, the product became the first and the only approved inhaled levodopa for the treatment of OFF periods in patients suffering Parkinson’s and receiving a carbidopa / levodopa regimen. The drug was launched in February this year and registered its first sales in the last reported quarter. It is also under review in Europe with a decision expected before 2019 end.
In the first quarter of 2019, Inbrija generated sales of $1.3 million. Acorda believes that Inbrija sales will pick up in the future quarters as well, having received an encouraging feedback both from doctors and patients since its launch. An approximately 2,000 prescription request forms for Inbrija were received through April 2019. We expect this positive trend to get reflected in the upcoming quarterly results.
However, Acorda’s key multiple sclerosis drug Ampyra is facing a generic competition, which is significantly hurting the company’s top line. Notably, in the first quarter of 2019, sales of Ampyra tanked 61% year over year and 37.5% sequentially due to generic launches.
Mylan (MYL - Free Report) launched its authorized generic version of Ampyra last September after the U.S. Court of Appeals invalidated four patents of Ampyra. Acorda believes that Ampyra sales will see a sharp decline in the future quarters during 2019. We expect management to provide an update on the same during the upcoming earnings call.
Although Inbrija is off to a promising start, it still remains to be seen if the product can deliver the desired results and be a worthy replacement for Ampyra in the long run. Acorda estimates Inbrija’s market opportunity to be more than $800 million in the United States.
Our proven model does not conclusively show that Acorda is likely to beat estimates this quarter to be reported. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to be able to beat on earnings. But that is not the case here as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: Acordahas an Earnings ESP of -9.01%, representing the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate of a loss of $1.15 and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.06. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Acorda sports a Zacks Rank of 1, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, its negative ESP in the combination leaves surprise prediction inconclusive.
We caution against the Sell-rated stocks (#4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.
Acorda Therapeutics, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some biotech stocks worth considering as our model shows that these have the right mix of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD - Free Report) is scheduled to release second-quarter results on Jul 30, after the market closes. The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.20% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN - Free Report) has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +6.25%. The company is scheduled to release second-quarter results on Aug 6, before the market opens.
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