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Transocean (RIG) Down 29.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Transocean (RIG - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 29.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Transocean due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Transocean Reports  Weaker Y/Y Results in Q2

Transocean posted second-quarter 2019 adjusted loss of 34 cents a share, a penny wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Lower-than-anticipated revenues from Harsh Environment floaters and increase in costs primarily led to the underperformance. Precisely, revenues from harsh environment floaters came in at $251 million, lagging the consensus estimate of $296 million. The bottom line also compared unfavorably with the year-ago period’s loss of 4 cents.

The offshore drilling powerhouse generated total revenues of $758 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $774 million. The top line also declined from the prior-year figure of $790 million.

Segmental Revenue Break Up

Transocean’s High-Specification floaters contributed about 97.2% to total contract drilling revenues, while Deepwater and Midwater floaters accounted for the remainder. In the quarter under review, revenues from Ultra-Deepwater and Harsh Environment floaters totaled $486 million and $251 million, respectively.

Revenue efficiency was 98%, in line with the first quarter. The figure reflected an increase from the year-ago level of 97%.

Dayrates and Utilization

On an encouraging note, average dayrate in the quarter under review rose to $314,900 from the year-ago level of $308,300, owing to an uptick in activity in the Asia Pacific, Brazil and GoM. The company witnessed y/y higher average revenue per day from harsh environment and midwater floaters. Overall fleet utilization was 56% during the quarter, down from the utilization rate of 57% in the year-ago period.

Backlog

Transocean’s backlog, which was recorded at $11.4 billion as of Jul 25, reflects a decline of $300 million from the year-ago period. During the second quarter, the company added approximately $158 million to its backlog.

Costs, Capex & Balance Sheet

Transocean’s operating and maintenance expenses rose 11.5% year over year to $774 million. Operating and maintenance costs also increased to $510 million from $431 million in the year-ago quarter. Transocean spent $86 million on capital expenditure in the second quarter of 2019. Cash provided by operating activities totaled $153 million, resulting in a positive free cash flow of $67 million. It had cash and cash equivalents of $2.2 billion on Jun 30, 2019. Long-term debt was $9.4 billion, with a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 42.3% as of the same date.

Guidance

For the third quarter, the company expects operating and maintenance expenses of $575 million. Full-year operating and maintenance costs are expected to be around $2.1 billion.  Capital spending is likely to be around $215 million (including $120 million to be spent on under-construction newbuilds) in the third quarter.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -61.82% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Transocean has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Transocean has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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