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NVR (NVR) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?

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Shares of NVR (NVR - Free Report) have been strong performers lately, with the stock up 3% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $3749.21 in the previous session. NVR has gained 49.8% since the start of the year compared to the 29.1% move for the Zacks Construction sector and the 37.6% return for the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on July 19, 2019, NVR reported EPS of $53.09 versus consensus estimate of $45.15 while it beat the consensus revenue estimate by 6.83%.

For the current fiscal year, NVR is expected to post earnings of $209.1 per share on $7.17 billion in revenues. This represents a 7.34% change in EPS on a 2.3% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $218.07 per share on $7.48 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 4.29% and 4.37%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

NVR may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company is due for a pullback from this level.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

NVR has a Value Score of C. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are C and A, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 17.5X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 16.1X versus its peer group's average of 7.1X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 1.63. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to consider the stock's Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, NVR currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if NVR passes the test. Thus, it seems as though NVR shares could have a bit more room to run in the near term.


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