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What's in the Cards for Aon (AON) This Earnings Season?

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Aon plc (AON - Free Report) is set to report third-quarter 2019 results on Oct 25, before the opening bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is pegged at $1.43, suggesting a 9.2% rise from the year-ago reported figure.

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered adjusted earnings per share of $1.87, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5% due to underperformance by its Retirement Solutions segment. However, the metric improved 9.4% year over year, primarily backed by the company’s strong organic revenue growth, decreased expenses and an operating margin improvement.

The insurance broker flaunts an impressive surprise history, having delivered an earnings beat in three of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 1.85%.

Earnings Catalysts for Q3

We expect to see superior performances across all the company’s segments, namely Commercial Risk Solutions, Reinsurance Solutions, Retirement Solutions, Health Solutions and Data & Analytic Services.

The consensus mark for the revenues at its Commercial Risk Solutions, Reinsurance Solutions, Retirement Solutions, Health Solutions and Data & Analytic Services segments indicates a respective increase of 4.8%, 7.5%, 3.8%, 6.2% and 5.7% from the prior-year reported figures.

Higher contribution from each segment is expected to have driven its consolidated revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at nearly $2.5 billion, implying a 5.2% improvement from the year-ago reported figure.

The company might have managed lowering its expense level on the back of its restructuring initiatives to reduce workforce and rationalize technology. This is likely to have improved its operating margins.

However, exposure to foreign exchange rate change is likely to have negatively impacted its earnings.

Management projected interest expense of $81 million per quarter, hinting at an issuance of additional term debt as well as high average debt balance, effective third quarter onward. This might affect the company’s earnings results.

What the Quantitative Model States

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Aon this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Aon has an Earnings ESP of -1.57%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $1.41, lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.43.  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Aon plc Price and EPS Surprise

Aon plc Price and EPS Surprise

Aon plc price-eps-surprise | Aon plc Quote

Zacks Rank: Aon carries a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s negative ESP makes surprise prediction difficult for the stock this time around.

Stocks to Consider

Some stocks worth considering from the insurance industry with the perfect mix of elements to surpass estimates in the next releases are as follows:

Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC - Free Report) is set to report third-quarter earnings on Oct 29. The stock has a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.41%.

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.52%. This Zacks #3 Ranked company is scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on Nov 4.

Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO - Free Report) is slated to announce third-quarter earnings on Oct 28. The stock has an Earnings ESP of +1.30% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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