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Will Segmental Performance Aid Lockheed's (LMT) Q4 Earnings?

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Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT - Free Report) is slated to release fourth-quarter and full-year 2019 results on Jan 28, before the opening bell.

Consistent revenue growth across Lockheed Martin’s major segments along with improved operational performance is expected to have boosted its fourth-quarter bottom line.

Let's see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.

Aeronautics Unit: A Key Catalyst

Lockheed Martin’s Aeronautics segment has been a major growth catalyst of this defense contractor for decades. It primarily manufactures advanced, combat-proven jets, and comprises almost 40% of the company’s top line. The strength in Aeronautics business division is expected to get reflected in the soon-to-be-reported quarter’s results with Lockheed Martin delivering increased number of its F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jets. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for F-35s deliveries is 45, indicating 40.6% improvement from the year-ago-quarter’s numbers.

The F-35 program is the primary contributor to this segment’s top line. Notably, the consensus estimate for this unit’s revenues stands at $6,259 million, suggesting 6.4% improvement from the prior-year quarter reported figure.

Space & MFC Units: Other Growth Drivers

Lockheed Martin’s Space business segment has been lately witnessing higher sales volumes for its renowned programs like Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared (Next Gen OPIR), Global Positioning System (GPS) III and the Orion program. This, along with solid sales volume from its new hypersonic development programs, is expected to have boosted this unit’s top line in the fourth quarter.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the segment’s fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $2,667 million, implying 7% increase from the year-ago quarter reported figure.  

Meanwhile, Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) segment, which provides critical missile defense support to the United States and its foreign allies, has delivered outstanding operational performance over multiple programs in the past couple of quarters. In fact, in the months of August and September 2019, the company opened two production facilities, to support the growing demand for its missile and other precision guidance systems. This, in turn, must have bolstered MFC unit’s production volume in the fourth quarter, in turn, boosting the top line.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MFC segment revenues is pegged at $2,644 million, implying an increase of 8.9% from the year-ago quarter reported figure.  

Revenue and Earnings Estimates

Solid revenue growth at the majority of Lockheed Martin business segments is likely to have boosted its overall top line in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fourth-quarter revenues stands at $15.28 billion, indicating a solid 6% increase from the year-earlier quarter reported figure.

The aforementioned expectations for production sales volume increase are indicative of solid fourth-quarter operational performance. A lower tax rate is expected to bolster Lockheed’s bottom line in the upcoming results.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the defense giant’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $4.97, indicating an improvement of 13.2% from the prior-year quarter's reported number.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Lockheed Martin this earnings season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Lockheed Martin has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some defense companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings has an Earnings ESP of +2.17% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to announce fourth-quarter 2019 earnings soon.

General Dynamics (GD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.23% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will announce fourth-quarter 2019 earnings results on Jan 29.

Heico Corporation (HEI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.94% and a Zacks Rank #1. The company is expected to announce first-quarter fiscal 2020 earnings soon.

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