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Tesla (TSLA) to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is likely to trump earnings estimates when it releases fourth-quarter 2019 results on Jan 29, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the quarter to be reported is $1.62 per share on revenues of $7 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share has increased 31.7% in the past 30 days.

The electric vehicle pioneer beat third-quarter 2019 earnings estimates by a whopping 1,340% on the back of continued volume growth and cost control. However, the company managed to beat estimates in just one of the trailing four quarters. This is depicted in the graph below:

Tesla, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Tesla, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Tesla, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Tesla, Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proprietary model predicts an earnings beat for Tesla this time around, as it has the right combination of two key ingredients. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is +3.34%. A favorable Earnings ESP serves as a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive surprise.

Zacks Rank: Tesla currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. A Zacks Rank #2, when combined with a positive ESP, makes us confident of an earnings beat. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Setting the Tone

Rising Model 3 delivery, which forms a major chunk of the automaker’s overall deliveries, is likely to have aided Tesla’s automotive revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.The company registered record overall deliveries of 112,000 vehiclesin fourth-quarter 2019, higher than 90,700 units delivered in the corresponding quarter of 2018.

Tesla’s energy generation and storage revenues are likely to have contributed positively to the firm’s upcoming results.Evidently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $422 million, suggesting an uptick from $371.5 million reported in the year-ago quarter.With a better supply of cells and new manufacturing equipment, the company’s energy storage deployments are expected to have increased. Improving efficiency of Powerwall installations is anticipated to have contributed to higher profitability of the firm’s energy products. The consensus estimate for service and other revenues is pegged at $623 million, indicating a 17.3% year-over-year increase.

Record deliveries in the fourth quarter, aided by Model 3 sales, along with improved performance of the firm’s energy and storage business are likely to have buoyed earnings for the to-be-reported quarter.

Other Stocks to Consider

Tesla is not the only auto firm looking up this earnings season. Here are some other companies from the sector, which according to our model have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the to-be-reported quarter.

PACCAR Inc. PCAR has an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is slated to release fourth-quarter 2019 earnings on Jan 28.

Lear Corporation LEA is set to report fourth-quarter 2019 earnings on Jan 28. The company has an Earnings ESP of +10.04% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Gentherm Inc. THRM is set to report fourth-quarter 2019 earnings on Feb 19. The firm has an Earnings ESP of +15.70% and a Zacks Rank #1.

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