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Amgen (AMGN) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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Amgen Inc. (AMGN - Free Report) will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2019 results on Jan 30, after market close. Amgen delivered positive earnings surprise of 4.27% in the last reported quarter.
Amgen shares have risen 17.5% in the past year against 4.7% decrease registered by the industry during this period.
Amgen’s performance has been impressive, with the company delivering a positive surprise in each of the trailing four quarters with the average being 5.82%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for the company ahead of the announcement.
Factors at Play
Higher sales of products like Prolia, Xgeva, Kyprolis and Blincyto are expected to have made up for softer sales of Amgen’s mature drugs like Enbrel, Aranesp, Epogen, Neupogen, Neulasta and Sensipar that face an array of branded and generic competitors. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbrel sales is $1.32 billion.
Sales of Prolia, Xgeva, Blincyto, Parsabiv, Kyprolis and Nplate are likely to have been driven by higher demand trends once again.
The respective Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prolia, Xgeva, Blincyto, Parsabiv and Kyprolis sales is pegged at $716 million, $498 million, $80 million, $177 million and $284 million.
Biosimilars may have once again been an important contributor to top-line growth driven by the launches of Kanjinti and Mvasi in the United States. Kanjinti (Amgen’s biosimilar of Roche’s Herceptin) and Mvasi (biosimilar of Roche’s Avastin) were launched in the United States in July 2019. In December, the FDA granted approval to Avsola (ABP 710), Amgen’s biosimilarversion of J&J/Merck’s blockbuster immunology medicine, Remicade. Management is expected to mentionwhen it plans to launch Avsola on the fourth-quarter conference call.
Though Repatha sales are expected to have gained on higher unit demand, lower prices are likely to have acted as an offsetting factor. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Repatha sales stands at $188 million.
Amgen’s new migraine drug, Aimovig, recorded sequentially lower sales in the third quarter due to unfavorable changes in accounting estimates for sales discounts in prior periods. It remains to be seen if sales have improved in the to-be-reported quarter.
Another important drug, Evenity was launched in the United States and Japan in 2019 for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women at high risk of fracture. Sales of the drug improved sequentially in the third quarter, a trend expected to have continued in the fourth quarter. Evenity was approved in Europe in December 2019 and is expected to have contributed negligible sales in the fourth quarter.
In November, Amgen completed the previously-announced acquisition of Celgene’s blockbuster psoriasis drug, Otezla, which the latter had to divest in order to complete its merger with Bristol-Myers (BMY - Free Report) . We expect the company to provide an update on sales of Otezla in the fourth quarter.
Key Recent Development
In the quarter, Amgen formed a strategic alliance with China’s leading pharma company BeiGene to expand its oncology footprint in the country. Per the deal, Amgen bought a 20.5% stake in BeiGene for $2.8 billion in cash. Per the terms of the deal, BeiGene will initially commercialize Xgeva, Kyprolis, and Blincyto in China with the companies equally sharing profits and losses. Also, the companies will collaborate to advance 20 of Amgen’s oncology pipeline candidates, including AMG 510, in China and globally. BeiGene will share R&D costs and contribute up to $1.25 billion to advance these medicines. However, Amgen will continue to market its non-cancer medicines in China.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Amgen this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Its Earnings ESP is -1.55% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.48 is higher than the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.42 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Amgen carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Alexion has an Earnings ESP of +5.97% and a Zacks Rank #1. The company is scheduled to release results on Jan 30
Today's Best Stocks from Zacks
Would you like to see the updated picks from our best market-beating strategies? From 2017 through 2019, while the S&P 500 gained an impressive +53.6%, five of our strategies returned +65.8%, +97.1%, +118.0%, +175.7% and even +186.7%.
This outperformance has not just been a recent phenomenon. From 2000 – 2019, while the S&P averaged +6.0% per year, our top strategies averaged up to +54.7% per year.
Image: Bigstock
Amgen (AMGN) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Amgen Inc. (AMGN - Free Report) will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2019 results on Jan 30, after market close. Amgen delivered positive earnings surprise of 4.27% in the last reported quarter.
Amgen shares have risen 17.5% in the past year against 4.7% decrease registered by the industry during this period.
Amgen’s performance has been impressive, with the company delivering a positive surprise in each of the trailing four quarters with the average being 5.82%.
Amgen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Amgen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Amgen Inc. Quote
Let’s see how things have shaped up for the company ahead of the announcement.
Factors at Play
Higher sales of products like Prolia, Xgeva, Kyprolis and Blincyto are expected to have made up for softer sales of Amgen’s mature drugs like Enbrel, Aranesp, Epogen, Neupogen, Neulasta and Sensipar that face an array of branded and generic competitors. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbrel sales is $1.32 billion.
Sales of Prolia, Xgeva, Blincyto, Parsabiv, Kyprolis and Nplate are likely to have been driven by higher demand trends once again.
The respective Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prolia, Xgeva, Blincyto, Parsabiv and Kyprolis sales is pegged at $716 million, $498 million, $80 million, $177 million and $284 million.
Biosimilars may have once again been an important contributor to top-line growth driven by the launches of Kanjinti and Mvasi in the United States. Kanjinti (Amgen’s biosimilar of Roche’s Herceptin) and Mvasi (biosimilar of Roche’s Avastin) were launched in the United States in July 2019. In December, the FDA granted approval to Avsola (ABP 710), Amgen’s biosimilarversion of J&J/Merck’s blockbuster immunology medicine, Remicade. Management is expected to mentionwhen it plans to launch Avsola on the fourth-quarter conference call.
Though Repatha sales are expected to have gained on higher unit demand, lower prices are likely to have acted as an offsetting factor. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Repatha sales stands at $188 million.
Amgen’s new migraine drug, Aimovig, recorded sequentially lower sales in the third quarter due to unfavorable changes in accounting estimates for sales discounts in prior periods. It remains to be seen if sales have improved in the to-be-reported quarter.
Another important drug, Evenity was launched in the United States and Japan in 2019 for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women at high risk of fracture. Sales of the drug improved sequentially in the third quarter, a trend expected to have continued in the fourth quarter. Evenity was approved in Europe in December 2019 and is expected to have contributed negligible sales in the fourth quarter.
In November, Amgen completed the previously-announced acquisition of Celgene’s blockbuster psoriasis drug, Otezla, which the latter had to divest in order to complete its merger with Bristol-Myers (BMY - Free Report) . We expect the company to provide an update on sales of Otezla in the fourth quarter.
Key Recent Development
In the quarter, Amgen formed a strategic alliance with China’s leading pharma company BeiGene to expand its oncology footprint in the country. Per the deal, Amgen bought a 20.5% stake in BeiGene for $2.8 billion in cash. Per the terms of the deal, BeiGene will initially commercialize Xgeva, Kyprolis, and Blincyto in China with the companies equally sharing profits and losses. Also, the companies will collaborate to advance 20 of Amgen’s oncology pipeline candidates, including AMG 510, in China and globally. BeiGene will share R&D costs and contribute up to $1.25 billion to advance these medicines. However, Amgen will continue to market its non-cancer medicines in China.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Amgen this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Its Earnings ESP is -1.55% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.48 is higher than the Most Accurate Estimate of $3.42 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Amgen carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some large biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Gilead Sciences (GILD - Free Report) with an Earnings ESP of +4.45% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on Feb 4. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Alexion has an Earnings ESP of +5.97% and a Zacks Rank #1. The company is scheduled to release results on Jan 30
Today's Best Stocks from Zacks
Would you like to see the updated picks from our best market-beating strategies? From 2017 through 2019, while the S&P 500 gained an impressive +53.6%, five of our strategies returned +65.8%, +97.1%, +118.0%, +175.7% and even +186.7%.
This outperformance has not just been a recent phenomenon. From 2000 – 2019, while the S&P averaged +6.0% per year, our top strategies averaged up to +54.7% per year.
See their latest picks free >>
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