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What Awaits Intra-Cellular Therapies (ITCI) in Q4 Earnings?

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We expect investors to focus on Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc.’s ITCI updates related to the commercialization plan for recently approved schizophrenia drug, Caplyta (lumateperone), on its fourth-quarter earnings call.

Shares of the company have surged 68.9% in the past year against the industry’s decrease of 3.1%.

Intra-Cellular Therapies’ earnings beat expectations in each of the last four quarters.The trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise is 23.18%, on average.

In the last reported quarter, Intra-Cellular Therapies delivered a positive earnings surprise of 26.74%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.

Factors to Watch

In December 2019, the FDA approved Intra-Cellular Therapies’ lead pipeline candidate, lumateperone for the treatment of schizophrenia in adults, with the tradename of Caplyta. The drug is the first FDA-approved drug in its portfolio. We expect the company to provide an update on its commercialization plan for the launch of the drug on its fourth-quarter earnings call.

Apart from schizophrenia, the company is also evaluating lumateperone in an ongoing phase III study as a treatment for bipolar depression. In July 2019, the company completed two other phase III studies on lumateperone evaluating it in patients with bipolar depression. While one met the primary endpoint, the other one failed. The company is also planning to initiate a phase II study to evaluate the candidate in patients with major depressive disorder in 2020.

The company also has an early-stage candidate, ITI-214, which is being developed as a treatment for systolic heart failure.

We expect developments related to the launch of Caplyta and ongoing clinical studies to have driven operating expense higher in the fourth quarter. However, completion of two late-stage studies on lumateperone may have partially offset the rise in expenses.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Intra-Cellular Therapies this time around.  The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate (loss of 73 cents) and the Zacks Consensus Estimate (loss of 79 cents), stands at +8.61%.

Zacks Rank: Intra-Cellular Therapies has a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some other biotech stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Vericel Corporation (VCEL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.29% and a Zacks Rank #1. The company is scheduled to release fourth-quarter results on Feb 25. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Immunomedics, Inc. IMMU has an Earnings ESP of +3.37% and a Zacks Rank #2.

AMAG Pharmaceuticals, Inc. AMAG has an Earnings ESP of +31.03% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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