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Actinium (ATNM) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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We expect investors to focus on sales numbers and pipeline updates, when Actinium ATNM reports fourth-quarter 2019 results.

In the last reported quarter, the company reported in-line earnings. In the last four quarters, the company beat earnings estimates once and reported in-line numbers in the other three, the average positive surprise being 5.56%.

Let us see what is in store for the fourth quarter.

Factors at Play

Actinium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing ARCs or Antibody Radiation-Conjugates, which combine the targeting ability of antibodies with the cell, killing the ability of radiation. Since the company does not have any approved product in its candidate, the focus is on pipeline updates.    

The company’s lead product candidate — I-131 apamistamab (Iomab-B) — is being studied in the ongoing pivotal phase III Study of Iomab-B in elderly relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia (SIERRA) study for Bone Marrow Transplant (BMT) conditioning.  The SIERRA trial is a 150-patient, multi-center trial, with patients randomized 1:1 to receive either Iomab-B and a BMT or physician’s choice of salvage chemotherapy. The SIERRA study is more than 50% enrolled.

The company recently announced positive data from the mid-point analysis of SIERRA study. The data showed substantially lower rates of febrile neutropenia and sepsis in patients receiving Iomab-B compared to patients receiving salvage chemotherapy in the control arm. Investors will look forward on further updates on this study which is expected to complete enrollment in 2020.

Apart from Iomab-B, Actinium is developing a multi-disease, multi-target pipeline of clinical-stage ARCs, targeting the antigens CD45 and CD33, for targeted conditioning and as a therapeutic either in combination with other therapeutic modalities or as a single agent for patients with a broad range of hematologic malignancies, including  Acute Myeloid Leukemi(AML) Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) Multiple Myeloma (MM).  Ongoing combination trials include its CD33 alpha ARC, actimab-A, in combination with the salvage chemotherapy CLAG-M and the Bcl-2 targeted therapy venetoclax.

In December, new positive data from a phase I trial evaluating actimab-A, in combination with the salvage chemotherapy regimen CLAG-M, were presented. Patients receiving Actimab-A at a dose of 0.50 uCi/kg in the second dose cohort in addition to CLAG-M had an 86% overall response rate (ORR), which is a 56% higher response rate and substantially greater than what has been observed with CLAG-M and MEC, and more than double that of CLAG in a similar patient population.

Share Price Performance

Actinium’s stock has depreciated 59.7% in the past year compared with the industry’s decline of 7.2%.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Actinium this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP, and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Actinium is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Aduro Biotech, Inc. ADRO has an Earnings ESP of +23.08% and flaunts a Zacks Rank #1, at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Perrigo Company plc PRGO has an Earnings ESP of +1.98% and holds a Zacks Rank of 2.

Sage Therapeutics, Inc. SAGE has an Earnings ESP of +2.74% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is scheduled to release earnings results on Feb 27.

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