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Ameriprise (AMP) Down 14.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Ameriprise Financial Services (AMP - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 14.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ameriprise due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Ameriprise Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates, Costs Decline

Ameriprise’s fourth-quarter 2019 adjusted operating earnings per share of $4.20 lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.24. However, the figure was 10.5% higher than the year-ago quarter.

The company recorded higher revenues in the quarter. Moreover, growth in AUM and assets under administration (AUA) supported results to some extent. Further, a decline in expenses was a tailwind.

After taking into consideration several significant items, net income was $463 million or $3.53 per share, down from $539 million or $3.76 per share reported in the prior-year quarter.

For 2019, adjusted operating earnings per share of $16.10 lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $16.17. However, the figure was 10% higher than that reported in 2018. Net income (GAAP basis) for the year was $1.89 billion or $13.92 per share, down from $2.10 billion or $14.20 per share reported in 2018.

Revenues Improve, Expenses Decline

Quarterly net revenues (on a GAAP basis) were $3.29 billion, up 3.4% year over year. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.99 billion. On an operating basis, total adjusted net revenues were $3.05 billion, down 3.9% year over year.

For 2019, net revenues (on a GAAP basis) were $12.97 billion, up 1% year over year. Moreover, the figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $12.03 billion.

Adjusted quarterly operating expenses were $2.40 billion, down 4.4% from the prior-year quarter.

AUM & AUA Improve

As of Dec 31, 2019, total AUM and AUA was $973.45 billion, up 18.3% year over year.

Capital Deployment

In the reported quarter, Ameriprise returned $0.7 billion to shareholders in forms of share repurchases and dividends.

Outlook

Management expects losses in the Corporate segment to be in the $70 million range, going forward.

Pre-tax margin for the Asset Management segment is expected to be 35-39% in the quarters ahead.

Long-Term Outlook

Management targets 6-8% growth in adjusted operating net revenues. Further, adjusted operating earnings are projected to grow 12-15%. Adjusted operating return on equity excluding AOCI is anticipated to be 19-23%.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Ameriprise has a nice Growth Score of B, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Ameriprise has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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