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Pioneer Natural (PXD) to Report Q1 Earnings: What to Expect

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Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2020 results on May 6, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company came up with earnings of $2.36 per share that beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.12. Moreover, quarterly earnings increased from $1.18 per share in the prior-year quarter. The strong earnings were attributed to higher production and average realized prices on an oil-equivalent basis.

Pioneer Natural beat earnings estimates thrice and missed once in the last four quarters, with the average positive surprise being 7.6%, as shown in the chart below.

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the announcement.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings of $1.03 per share has seen two upward revisions and nine downward movements in the past 30 days. The figure suggests a year-over-year decline of 43.7%.

Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.3 billion for the quarter, indicating a decline of 4.8% from the year-ago reported figure.

Q1 Expectations

Exploration and production company, Pioneer Natural's first-quarter productions are expected to get a boost on the back of operations in the Permian, the most prolific basin in the United States. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter average overall production is pegged at 366 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d), indicating a rise from the year-ago level of 333.4 MBoe/d.

Since crude accounts for the majority of the company’s production volumes (60.6% in fourth-quarter 2019), the potential rise in year-over-year production is likely to have favored first-quarter earnings. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average crude oil production volumes of the company is pegged at 222 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d), suggesting an increase from the year-ago period’s 206.3 MBbls/d.

However, the consensus estimate for average price realizations forcrude oil is $34.46 per barrel, indicating a steep fall from the year-ago period’s $49.38. Overall price realization for the quarter is pegged at $33.24 per barrel of oil equivalent, signaling a significant decline from the year-ago level of $37.84. Although increased productions are likely to reflect on the company’s first-quarter results, declining average commodity price realizations are expected to have offset the positives.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Pioneer Natural this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and Zacks Consensus Estimate currently stand at $1.03 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.  

Zacks Rank: Pioneer Natural currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Energy Stocks With Favorable Combination

While earnings beat looks uncertain for Pioneer Natural, here are some companies from the Energy space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

Comstock Resources, Inc. (CRK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.63% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results after the market closes on May 6. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Sunoco LP (SUN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +14.75% and a Zacks Rank of 3. It is scheduled to report first-quarter results on May 11.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +36.36% and holds a Zacks Rank #3. It is set to report first-quarter results on May 7.

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