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Square (SQ) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Square, Inc. (SQ - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2020 results on May 6.

For first-quarter 2020, the company lowered total net revenue guidance to the range of $1.30-$1.34 billion from previous expectation of $1.34-$1.36 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.30 billion, indicating growth of 36.02% from the prior-year quarter.

Additionally, the company revised gross profit guidance to the range of $515-$525 million from prior projection of $550-$560 million.

We note that the company provided this updated guidance on account of the coronavirus pandemic and announcement of lockdowns in several countries in the first quarter to curb the spread of the deadly virus.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 13 cents per share, suggesting an improvement of 18.2% year over year.

The company has a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 27.19%, on average.

Square, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Square, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Square, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Square, Inc. Quote


GPV: A Key Metric

GPV is the key metric to analyze Square’s business growth.

Notably, coronavirus pandemic has been impacting the company’s gross payment volume (GPV) since March. This, in turn, is likely to get reflected in the first-quarter results.

Nevertheless, the company’s portfolio strength and comprehensive commerce ecosystem, which helps it in attracting new sellers and retaining the existing sellers, are likely to have sustained seller momentum in the to-be-reported quarter.

Moreover, Square’s strong relationships with sellers are might have driven its GPV growth in the quarter to be reported.

Notably, the company defines larger sellers as those which make more than $125,000 of annualized GPV and midmarket sellers as those which make more than $500,000 of annualized revenues.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GPV for first quarter is currently projected at $26.7 billion, suggesting growth of 18% from the year-ago reported figure.

Other Factors to Note

Square’s strong product lines including Square Invoices, Instant Deposits, Cash Card, Square Point of Sale, Square Online Store, Square Reader, Square Photo Studio, Order Manager, Square Payroll and SquareStand are expected to have driven the first-quarter performance.

Further, growing momentum of Cash App is likely to have contributed to the company’s performance in the quarter to be reported. Notably, Cash App’s strong business model remains a key catalyst for the company in the bitcoin space.

Additionally, company’s robust hardware devices like Square Register and Square Terminal might have attracted new sellers to its platform.

Square’s omni-channel offerings, which help sellers in creating differentiated customer experience on the back of customer insights by managing orders from the point of sale and eliminating manual aggregation of online and in-person orders, are expected to have strengthened seller base in the to-be-reported quarter.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Square this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Square has an Earnings ESP of +2.15% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies, which also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Inphi Corporation has an Earnings ESP of +20.04% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Etsy, Inc. (ETSY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +18.31% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Universal Display Corporation (OLED - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +15.90% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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