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S&P Global Lowers 13 Banks' Outlook on Coronavirus Concerns
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S&P Global Ratings revised rating outlooks on 13 banks to negative from stable as the coronavirus-induced mayhem has weakened creditworthiness of borrowers. These banks have substantial exposure to industries that are hit hardest by the virus outbreak and the subsequent halt in business activities.
The rating agency affirmed ratings and lowered outlooks on Ally Financial (ALLY - Free Report) , Capital One (COF - Free Report) , Discover Financial Services, Synchrony Financial, SLM Corp., American Savings Bank FSB, CIT Group, East West Bancorp Inc.(EWBC - Free Report) , Investors Bancorp, New York Community Bancorp Inc.(NYCB - Free Report) , Synovus Financial Corp. (SNV - Free Report) , Trustmark Corp., as well as Valley National Bancorp.
Additionally, it affirmed the outlooks on American Express and UMB Financial Corp. (UMBF - Free Report) at stable and negative, respectively.
Rationale Behind Outlook Revision
S&P credit analysts noted that despite the measures taken by the Federal Reserve and government, banks are likely to face significant strain on credit quality, net interest margins and earnings in the coming quarters, in case the downturn lasts longer than expected and/or recovery is modest.
S&P economists are projecting GDP to contract at a 35% annualized rate in the second quarter and by 5.2% for full-year 2020. A gradual recovery is likely to begin after 2020, with the economy back to “prerecession level in the third quarter of 2021.” Also, unemployment rate is expected to peak at 19% in May and touch 8.8% at end-2020, before declining to 6.7% next year.
Banks entered the crisis period with historically solid capital, liquidity and balance sheet positions. The rating agency stated, “The widespread halting of much business activity and the surge in unemployment is weighing on their revenue streams and earnings, weakening the creditworthiness of their borrowers, and forcing them to sharply increase the allowances they set aside for future losses on their loans.”
Thus, the asset quality of banks with substantial exposure to loan portfolios such as commercial, commercial real estate (CRE) (including multifamily) and consumer lending is expected to worsen severely in the quarters ahead.
S&P noted “The halting of business activity and social distancing measures are hurting many commercial borrowers and CRE owners, and the surge in unemployment is testing the ability of individuals to pay their credit card, auto, and other consumer loans. Banks that lack loan or business diversification could be especially tested if the areas where they have concentrations deteriorate meaningfully.”
Conclusion
S&P basically lowered the outlooks of these 13 banks owing to lack of diversification in loan portfolios and/or revenue sources.
At the same time, the rating agency believes that major U.S. banks including eight globally systemically important banks like JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) , Bank of America, Citigroup (C - Free Report) and Goldman Sachs are better positioned to combat the current crisis owing to enhanced regulatory supervision since the 2008 financial crisis, and “superior business and loan diversification.”
Nevertheless, the current situation is “fluid and there are downside risks to the economy.” The rating agency will have to take negative actions in case “expectations for the economy worsen or more evidence emerges of deterioration in banks' creditworthiness.”
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S&P Global Lowers 13 Banks' Outlook on Coronavirus Concerns
S&P Global Ratings revised rating outlooks on 13 banks to negative from stable as the coronavirus-induced mayhem has weakened creditworthiness of borrowers. These banks have substantial exposure to industries that are hit hardest by the virus outbreak and the subsequent halt in business activities.
The rating agency affirmed ratings and lowered outlooks on Ally Financial (ALLY - Free Report) , Capital One (COF - Free Report) , Discover Financial Services, Synchrony Financial, SLM Corp., American Savings Bank FSB, CIT Group, East West Bancorp Inc.(EWBC - Free Report) , Investors Bancorp, New York Community Bancorp Inc.(NYCB - Free Report) , Synovus Financial Corp. (SNV - Free Report) , Trustmark Corp., as well as Valley National Bancorp.
Additionally, it affirmed the outlooks on American Express and UMB Financial Corp. (UMBF - Free Report) at stable and negative, respectively.
Rationale Behind Outlook Revision
S&P credit analysts noted that despite the measures taken by the Federal Reserve and government, banks are likely to face significant strain on credit quality, net interest margins and earnings in the coming quarters, in case the downturn lasts longer than expected and/or recovery is modest.
S&P economists are projecting GDP to contract at a 35% annualized rate in the second quarter and by 5.2% for full-year 2020. A gradual recovery is likely to begin after 2020, with the economy back to “prerecession level in the third quarter of 2021.” Also, unemployment rate is expected to peak at 19% in May and touch 8.8% at end-2020, before declining to 6.7% next year.
Banks entered the crisis period with historically solid capital, liquidity and balance sheet positions. The rating agency stated, “The widespread halting of much business activity and the surge in unemployment is weighing on their revenue streams and earnings, weakening the creditworthiness of their borrowers, and forcing them to sharply increase the allowances they set aside for future losses on their loans.”
Thus, the asset quality of banks with substantial exposure to loan portfolios such as commercial, commercial real estate (CRE) (including multifamily) and consumer lending is expected to worsen severely in the quarters ahead.
S&P noted “The halting of business activity and social distancing measures are hurting many commercial borrowers and CRE owners, and the surge in unemployment is testing the ability of individuals to pay their credit card, auto, and other consumer loans. Banks that lack loan or business diversification could be especially tested if the areas where they have concentrations deteriorate meaningfully.”
Conclusion
S&P basically lowered the outlooks of these 13 banks owing to lack of diversification in loan portfolios and/or revenue sources.
At the same time, the rating agency believes that major U.S. banks including eight globally systemically important banks like JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) , Bank of America, Citigroup (C - Free Report) and Goldman Sachs are better positioned to combat the current crisis owing to enhanced regulatory supervision since the 2008 financial crisis, and “superior business and loan diversification.”
Nevertheless, the current situation is “fluid and there are downside risks to the economy.” The rating agency will have to take negative actions in case “expectations for the economy worsen or more evidence emerges of deterioration in banks' creditworthiness.”
Today's Best Stocks from Zacks
Would you like to see the updated picks from our best market-beating strategies? From 2017 through 2019, while the S&P 500 gained and impressive +53.6%, five of our strategies returned +65.8%, +97.1%, +118.0%, +175.7% and even +186.7%.
This outperformance has not just been a recent phenomenon. From 2000 – 2019, while the S&P averaged +6.0% per year, our top strategies averaged up to +54.7% per year.
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